Explosive wave of ambition

Poland is ready to station an increasing number of NATO troops on its territory and wishes to deploy nuclear weapons there. What is the essence of this policy?

Warsaw has expressed a desire to come under the French ‘nuclear umbrella’. In the words of president Karol Nawrocki, the main point is not even which bombs will be given preference — French or American. What is far more important is why Poland is transforming into a state seeking to sharply build up its military potential.

Rafale fighters at our borders 

Warsaw’s co-operation with Paris in the military sphere has continued with the deployment of three French Rafale fighters as part of NATO’s Eastern Sentry operation. These combat aircraft are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. 

President Nawrocki’s statement about the willingness to keep these ‘birds’ on a permanent basis in Poland is a loud signal to everyone. This is a new attempt to escalate the conflict between NATO and the Union State of Belarus and Russia on the part of European globalists. 

The very fact that nuclear carriers have ended up 100km from the Belarusian border speaks volumes. At the same time, the information coverage of the operation appears deliberately vague. The calculation, obviously, is based on psychological pressure. 

Going for broke 

The nuclear issue in Poland is being used as a tool for political struggle and electorate mobilisation. The same approach is typical of other areas as well: a sharp turn from supporting refugee rights to xenophobia, ‘de-Sovietisation’ of history, and so on.
The deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland is not just an internal matter for the neighbouring state. It has serious geopolitical consequences, especially for Belarus and Russia. Claims that someone is going to attack Europe, NATO countries, are an outrageous lie being instilled in the population of the West.
It is important to understand that the deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland may take place within the framework of NATO’s Nuclear Sharing programme. Under it, by 2021, the United States was able to deploy B-61 type warheads at airbases in five NATO countries — Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Türkiye. Any such decision requires the approval of the NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), the U.S. president and the British Prime Minister.

The deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland will lead to a final rupture in relations between Washington and Moscow, as it will violate the fundamental agreement along the Russia–NATO line, which stated that there would be no nuclear warheads on the territory of countries that joined the alliance after 1997. Poland joined it in 1999.

Moreover, Poland lacks the necessary infrastructure for storing and maintaining such projectiles, and it has no aircraft adapted to carry them. Incidentally, the presence of missile silos in Belarus, remaining from the Soviet era, did not imply readiness for the immediate deployment of such weapons in our country. It was necessary to conduct a full analysis of the condition of these facilities and assess the costs of their modernisation. Belarus’ experience underscores the complexity of such work. We managed to do this quickly thanks to the President’s policy aimed at effectively ensuring the country’s security. In addition, strict measures for the control and non-proliferation of these dangerous materials must be observed. Warsaw is not prepared now to accept ‘nuclear cargo’, yet it demonstrates a willingness to go for broke in order to prove its usefulness and devotion to the United States.

Increasing costs

While France possesses its own nuclear capability, sharing it with other countries would be an expensive undertaking. It would entail increased defence spending and require considerable diplomatic efforts to persuade allies and prevent escalation. Paris cannot, solely from its own resources, upgrade its expanding military arsenal, strengthen infrastructure, maintain a permanent presence of its troops abroad, or spend on conducting military drills. This means that funding issues will need to be discussed with NATO allies. But will they agree to allocate additional funds to the Polish initiative? Similar questions arise with regard to Germany and other European countries wishing to come under someone else’s ‘nuclear umbrella’.

Recently, the possibility of Germany creating its own nuclear weapons has been actively discussed in the German media. Surveys show that about a quarter of the local population supports this idea. However, there are many obstacles to its implementation.

Thus, it would be necessary to create a comprehensive legislative framework and build test sites and storage systems for such dangerous waste, which is problematic due to the country’s small territory, high population density and strong environmental sentiments in society. And the main thing is the international reaction: all this will cause disagreements and imbalances in the EU and NATO, and will be met with disapproval from the United Kingdom and France, as well as Poland and Türkiye.

Based on international law

Germany and Poland, through their political leaders, are actively promoting the idea of stationing (developing) nuclear weapons on their territory, using information and psychological manipulation aimed at instilling the idea of an inevitable ‘threat from the East’. Such actions are fuelled by the political goals of local elites.
The key objective of these scenarios is to create conditions for the permanent militarisation of NATO’s eastern flank, with a subsequent increase in the dependence of European countries on decisions taken by the globalist establishment. In the context of a crisis in strategic dialogue and the suspension of arms control agreements, even a symbolic approximation of nuclear platforms to the borders of the Union State is objectively perceived as a direct challenge. The emergence of new threats and a shift in the balance of power require the development of new mechanisms for nuclear arms control. Belligerent rhetoric today is ceasing to be merely symbolic — it is once again becoming part of practical politics, with obvious risks for overall European security.
The desire of Poland and some other aggressively-minded countries to obtain a ‘nuclear umbrella’ indicates the existence of huge risks and could lead to negative consequences. And this must not be allowed.

CULTIVATING FEARS

Poland is consistently and purposefully preparing its society for the idea of hosting nuclear weapons. This process, resembling a meticulously planned information campaign, is unfolding gradually, employing a combination of escalating rhetoric, political manoeuvres and manipulation of public opinion.
The first step has been a series of accusations against Belarus and Russia. Simultaneously, the notion is being instilled in citizens’ minds that the country cannot survive without a nuclear shield, even with a NATO contingent present.

TO THE POINT

Previously, Poland has participated in NATO's nuclear programme — within the framework of the SNOWCAT mission — providing conventional support in the event of a decision to launch a nuclear strike. More active participation would imply the creation of storage facilities for B-61 warheads and the modernisation of aircraft for their delivery.

By Aleksandr Tikhansky, military political analyst, Candidate of Sociological Sciences