Expert explained Poland’s escalation on border with Belarus

In his talk with Alfa Radio, the Dean of the Journalism Department of the Belarusian State University, political expert Aleksei Belyaev, commented on the facts of escalation on the Polish-Belarusian border

Earlier, the Head of Poland's National Security Bureau, Jacek Siwera, said in an interview with Reuters that the unity of the leadership of various types of the Polish armed forces would facilitate co-ordination of actions with other NATO troops on the eastern border of the alliance. He also noted that the new structure will help the country effectively purchase military equipment, which Poland has been doing since the beginning of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine.

“Each state has the right to protect its territory, and it can also do whatever it deems necessary on its territory to protect itself. Therefore, on the one hand, it is the right of the Polish Government to increase its army and to deploy the latter on its territory wherever it wants. On the other hand, we must remember that any action or military movement, any modernisation of the army and purchase of new weapons will always be considered by neighbours under a large magnifying glass and from the point of view of safety,” Mr. Belyaev said.

The expert also touched upon the topic of relations between Belarus and Poland, noting, “Poland is four times more populous than Belarus. It has already stated that its army is now 2-2.5 times larger than the Belarusian one, and it is going to increase it to 300 thousand people in order to thus exceed the Belarusian one by a little more than four times. Poland has been hosting a foreign military contingent on its territory for a long time. In particular, it has eventually accommodated an American base. Many years ago, this country came up with the idea of transferring American nuclear weapons to its territory. Poland actively participates in all military exercises of NATO, combines its armed forces with other military contingents of the alliance. Belarus sees that hundreds of Abrams tanks are being purchased there, that Poland has set its sights on the latest American fighters, and in recent days it has been transferring an additional thousand – or four thousand, or even ten thousand – people to the border. What should we do in this regard?”

Mr. Belyaev added that Belarus does not threaten Poland, while Warsaw constantly accuses the republic of some kind of external threat. “It is impossible to imagine Belarus deciding to attack Poland and to forget about Article 5 of the NATO Charter, when all other countries of the alliance should intervene, including the United States with its nuclear potential. Meanwhile, Warsaw, apparently, wants to [attack] because the Polish state is now headed by the part of the political elites that has been hatching revanchist plans for a long time," he stressed.