Manipulations with continuation

Trump won the presidential election in Poland. Why is this statement true?

Karol Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian supported by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, won the election campaign in Poland, receiving about 51 percent of the vote, beating his rival, Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw nominated by the Civic Coalition party, by two percent. What do these results suggest?

Battle between Brussels and Washington 

The 2025 presidential election has already been called one of the dirtiest in the history of our neighbouring country. This is not even due to the war of compromising materials between the candidates. The election campaign will be remembered by many for the unprecedented interference in its course from abroad — that is the USA and the EU. The Polish political model has been created since 1989 through a national consensus around the idea of moving to the West. If earlier it was represented by Euro-Atlantic solidarity, now everything looks completely different. The EU and the USA are in a state of value and trade wars. Donald Trump is forcing European manufacturers to relocate their enterprises to the USA. At the same time, the US President’s administration is strengthening the political component of its pressure, forming the ‘Trumpist International’ within the EU from Eurosceptic right-wing and nationalist parties.

In response, the Euro-bureaucracy does not shy away from using the dirtiest fighting methods. The popular German party AfD [Alternative for Germany] has been recognised as extremist. Criminal prosecution is being initiated against the French opposition politician, Marine Le Pen. In Romania, the first round of elections, in which Trumpist candidate Georgescu won, was initially cancelled. And then, this very popular politician was simply not allowed to participate in the re-election. To create a victory for the pro-European mayor of Bucharest, manipulations with voter lists and the counting of votes abroad took place.

Poland has not stood aside in this struggle. The two traditionally pro-Western parties — Law and Justice and Civic Coalition — which have ruled sometimes together, sometimes alternately for 20 years, now find themselves on opposite sides of the barricades in the epicentre of the struggle between Brussels and Washington for Poland.

Romanian scenario failed

Back in February of this year, at the start of the election campaign, the newly appointed US Ambassador to Poland, Thomas Rose, effectively announced Washington’s geopolitical priorities in this country, pointing out that it is important for the USA to increase Poland’s sovereignty and independence from the European Union. Thus, Donald Trump, through the mouth of his ambassador in Warsaw, made a direct challenge to the EU. Moreover, a week before the first round of elections, Donald Trump personally met with his protégé candidate Karol Nawrocki and supported him. The liberal globalists of the EU tried to respond to all this. A centralised hate machine was launched on the internet. It was aimed against pro-Trump candidates Karol Nawrocki and Sławomir Mentzen. At the same time, the materials being distributed directly promoted and supported the pro-European Rafał Trzaskowski. More than 420,000 złoty was spent on this campaign, which is more than the official election funds of the three leaders of the election race — Nawrocki, Trzaskowski and Mentzen — combined.
The detected hate machine was backed by the Democracy Action foundation, which is nothing more than a front for EU, German, and Norwegian foundations, as well as by George Soros’ Open Society foundation.
A massive contingent of liberal international heavyweights was also mobilised to campaign for Trzaskowski. Former US President Barack Obama, liberal philosopher Francis Fukuyama, and George Soros’ son, Alex, were invited to the Impact’25 international conference in Poznań, which became a campaign platform for Trzaskowski.
Romanian–Moldovan innovations were also used to enable technical falsifications. A record number of voters (around 800,000) were registered abroad, and many polling stations were opened outside Poland. Within the country, ballot papers were issued without being certified by members of the electoral commissions.

Deficit of sovereignty

During the election campaign, both candidates repeatedly demonstrated that they were protégés from abroad. In debates and remote discussions, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki appealed to the EU and the US and their interests in the region.
The fragility of Donald Tusk’s existing pro-European coalition may be a negative sign for Brussels. For example, the Together party [Partia Razem] of Adrian Zandberg, which supported Tusk in 2023, has already gone into opposition. There is uncertainty surrounding the Peasant Party, headed by Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. After Trzaskowski’s defeat, he cancelled his press conference and, at the time of writing this article, is keeping the public in the dark about his future in the government coalition.

Utilising a corridor of opportunity

Karol Nawrocki is not formally affiliated politically with any party. A corridor of opportunity opens up for him to exploit the struggle between Brussels and Washington to strengthen Polish sovereignty and independence, making it not just election slogans but real political practice. This can only be achieved by unconventional methods of distancing oneself from the opposing centres of the West. But for this, it is necessary to expand the geography of Poland’s co-operation to include the countries of the collective East, as well as to normalise relations with Belarus and Russia.

However, there is considerable scepticism that the newly elected president’s political will, intellectual potential and narrow worldview will allow him to do this. He has a huge temptation to continue the well-trodden path of his predecessors and continue to turn Poland into a political and geographical dead end of the collective West.

Only, instead of the militaristic coalition of those desiring war in Ukraine, into which Tusk dragged Poland, Nawrocki is tempted to join the Fort Trump militaristic project, which envisages the creation of a network of American bases in Poland for 100,000 soldiers. However, such playing with fire can only lead to a new escalation in the region, which both Nawrocki and Trzaskowski were so afraid to discuss in the debates.

PUPPET MASTERS IN THE SHADOWS

Deputies from the Poland 2050 party, which is part of Tusk’s coalition, are also increasingly criticising him for his failure. The Prime Minister himself has gone for broke and announced that he will ask the Sejm for a vote of confidence in the government. Most members of the coalition took this as a new bargain for ministerial posts, especially against the background of the announcement by the leader of the PiS party, Jarosław Kaczyński, of demands to dissolve the coalition and create a technical government. This indicates that the results of the presidential election have opened the way for a new squabble in the struggle for power, the outcome of which could be either the preservation of the current government or new elections to the Sejm. However, behind this struggle are not Warsaw politicians, as it may seem, but Brussels and Washington. The question is being decided in whose orbit Warsaw will be in the coming years.

By Piotr Petrovsky, political scientist