Get vaccinated and stay healthy

The emergence of Disease X and new viruses — intimidation of the population or underestimation of vaccination effectiveness?

Humanity is threatened by pandemics again. These days, the so-called Disease X is all over the news. So far, it is a hypothetical disease that is 20 times more dangerous than the coronavirus and can appear at any moment. The prospects for the emergence of a new infection were discussed by participants of the World Economic Forum in Davos, in January. However, there are plenty of other problems in the world — well-known infections are overpowering. 

Stop the infection

Doctors annually set the task of vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population against the flu — this will make it possible to build collective immunity, and therefore prevent the spread of infection. The minimum plan is implemented. In case of COVID, the situation is slightly different. By mid–2021, more than a year after the outbreak of the pandemic, the preliminary overall level of collective immunity (total post-infectious and post-vaccination) of the surveyed population in Belarus amounted to 47.4 percent. This is not enough to curb the active circulation of the virus, the Ministry of Health stated.

What about other infections?

The list of deadly infections circulating on the planet includes plague, cholera, anthrax (Siberian plague)… Measles is also on this list, although many people thought it had been eliminated from Belarus long ago. Yet, by late January, a little over 200 cases of this disease were registered in the republic. For comparison: by mid–December, there were 160 confirmed cases since the beginning of 2023. The infection comes to our country from the outside and it spreads quickly. The other day, the Chief State Sanitary Doctor of Belarus, Aleksandr Tarasenko, provided a case from Lida: an infected person came to the district from a neighbouring region, talked with 15 people, and all of them were subsequently hospitalised in the infectious disease department of the district hospital. The doctors promptly began to clarify the immune status of the contacts in order to offer to be vaccinated, if necessary, and thereby to prevent the disease.

Distrustful people are on the losing side

According to Belstat, 2–3 percent of babies were not vaccinated at the end of last year. Thus, 98.3 percent of children were vaccinated against mumps and rubella, 97.6 percent — against tuberculosis, 97.9 percent — against whooping cough, diphtheria and tetanus. Meanwhile, the National Calendar of Preventive Vaccinations includes immunisation against over a dozen infections, while almost two dozen vaccinations are available for epidemic indications. Recently, vaccination against COVID–19 has been included in the calendar. 
Residents of our country have the opportunity to do a good deed for themselves and their loved ones, even on the days of increased incidence of viral infections among the population. The flu vaccination campaign is ongoing. So far, non-influenza troops are at the forefront of the seasonal viral attack on Belarusians. They look like the head of a contagious clan, yet it is not the flu, doctors say. Specialists also identify adenoviruses, rhinoviruses and bocaviruses. However, the flu gets activated, too, mainly of type A. In this regard, it definitely won’t hurt to get vaccinated.

Is Disease X a warning to humanity?

Back in 2018, the World Health Organisation (WHO) added Disease X to the list of priority diseases that require urgent research and development of drugs. Yet, no one knows so far what kind of infection it is. The designation is only a term that emphasises the importance of being ready for new challenges that can cause serious damage to the human population.
COVID–19 is called the first Disease X now. The WHO has pointed out that experts have been preparing for such outbreaks since 2018. However, judging by the first months of the pandemic, this did not reduce the confusion caused by the infection pressure. According to them, the organisation has already started implementing measures to prepare for the outbreak of a hypothetical disease, which is expected to be much more dangerous than COVID.
The WHO has no doubt that trouble will come. “The question is not whether this will happen or not, but when it will happen,” WHO Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated at the January World Economic Forum in Davos.   
Based on expert estimates, the virus that can cause the next pandemic is similar to the one that causes COVID–19. Such viruses can multiply in different animal species, from which a dangerous pathogen is likely to pass to humans. It is assumed that the outbreak of the epidemic may occur in regions with rich fauna and low access to qualified medical care.

Pandemics of the modern era

1918–1919 — Spanish flu. 20–40 percent of the world’s population was affected. The estimated death toll amounted to 50–100 million people. The epidemic was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin.
1957/1968 — Asian flu/Hong Kong flu. The number of victims exceeded 1.5 million people.
1981 — present — HIV/AIDS. It has taken the lives of over 35 million people worldwide. AIDS is the final stage of HIV infection.
2002–2003 — Atypical pneumonia. More than 8,400 SARS cases were reported in 30 countries. Over 770 people fell victims. The virus initially developed in bats, then spread to cats, and later became dangerous to humans. Effective quarantine measures helped localise it. 
2009 — Swine flu. It is an animal-origin virus with a unique blend of genes from swine, avian and human influenza viruses. It killed 0.13—1.87 million people (according to various estimates).
2020 — present — COVID–19. The number of victims — about 7 million people (from the consequences and complications associated with the coronavirus).

Immunisation successfully defeats these 

• Smallpox (start of mass immunisation — 1798/1918)
• Polio (1959)
• Measles (1967)
• Diphtheria (1957)
• Tetanus (1957)
• Rubella (1967/1995)
• Tuberculosis (1963)
• Whooping cough (1957)
• Mumps (1963/1974)
• Viral hepatitis B, acute form (1996)

Why vaccination is necessary

Tuberculosis — an infection that most often affects lungs, and in children — other organs, too. A severe case can lead to serious complications or death. This disease is difficult to treat.
Hepatitis B — a virus that can lead to cirrhosis and liver cancer.
Polio — results in persistent paralysis, atrophy of bones and muscles. Up to 10 percent of people with a paralytic form of the disease die from paralysis of the respiratory muscles.
Diphtheria — affects the throat and tonsils, making it difficult to breathe and swallow. In severe cases it can lead to damage to the heart, kidneys and nervous system.
Tetanus — causes very painful muscle contractions. Even with treatment, it is often fatal.
Whooping cough — prolonged coughing attacks in some cases can lead to breathing problems, pneumonia and death.
Measles — an extremely contagious disease, its serious cases can cause blindness, brain swelling, and death. 
Rubella — this infection is usually mild in children and adults, but in pregnant women it can cause miscarriage, stillbirth, infant death or birth defects. 
Human papillomavirus (HPV) — some strains can cause cervical cancer. HPV can also cause genital warts both in men and women, as well as cancers of other parts of the body.
Influenza — pneumonia is the most common consequence. Other complications include otitis, maxillar sinusitis, influenza encephalitis, myocarditis, exacerbation of chronic diseases of kidneys, pulmonary and cardiovascular systems. 

Prospects for the future

• PNEUMOCOCCUS. The question of introducing pneumococcal vaccination into the National Vaccination Calendar is under discussion in Belarus.
• ALCOHOLISM. Belarus is testing a vaccine that creates a buffer to counteract the shock dose of alcohol.
• COVID–19. At the instruction of the President, our scientists have created a vaccine against coronavirus. It has passed all necessary clinical trials. It is planned to be used on the eve of the next epidemic season.
• LUNG CANCER. Our country, in liaison with foreign partners, is working on a lung cancer vaccine. 

By Aleksandr Nesterov