Support is growing: social survey data on trust towards the President, government, security forces and church

From July 22nd to August 12th, 2022, the EcooM Analytical Centre conducted a sociological study, entitled Social Thinking under the Sanctions Regime, covering 1,560 respondents from all over Belarus. The data of the sociological survey were reported to BelTA by the Director of the EcooM Centre Sergei Musiyenko, who noted that respondents were asked to answer the questions to what extent do they trust the President, the government, the army, law enforcement agencies and the church.

To the question ‘To what extent do you trust the President?’ 76.3 percent of Belarusians answered ‘I trust in general’, 13.6 percent responded ‘I do not trust in general’ while 10.1 percent found it difficult to answer.

“Now, in the regime of unprecedented external sanctions, the President is generally trusted by 76.3 percent, and generally distrusted by 13.6 percent. Is it a lot or a little? In December 2021, when we conducted a large-scale study before the referendum – Belarus. Opinion about the Future – more than 10,000 people were surveyed. Then, in general, 72.3 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the President and 14.3 percent of respondents expressed distrust. As you can see, we are seeing a positive trend in the growth of public confidence in the President of the country. We see an increase of 4 percent in just six months! These were six months of overcoming the consequences of 2020 in society, anti-COVID policy, going against the global mainstream, but the real result was shown by our healthcare system. These were six months of conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, in which we did not get involved, although we are constantly predicted this. Actually, sanctions have been imposed against us for active neutrality,” Sergei Musiyenko said.

The Director of the EcooM Analytical Centre stated that all this is a well-balanced and balanced policy of the President of Belarus on external challenges, which many may dislike for various reasons. “His real peacekeeping initiatives began to change the agenda and interfere with third-party players,” he said. “As we see, the sanctions packages – enthusiastically adopted against Belarus and our people – naturally lead to an increase in confidence in the Head of State. For people who are not spoiled by the Bologna system and those who are still able to think for themselves, it is obvious that there is a result of his policy. We see the result on the streets of our cities, not only in the capital, in granaries throughout the country, and on store shelves, and in utility bills for heating, gas and electricity. Hence the answers of Belarusians to the question about satisfaction with life in general at 78.7 percent, and an even higher assessment of the quality of their personal financial situation.”

“Against the backdrop of widespread collapses in ratings and a stream of resignations of politicians in the EU and the US that have just begun, we see a different attitude towards our leader of the people of Belarus,” Sergei Musiyenko continued.

“In the West, they don’t still understand the connection between a specific event and a cause. In particular, this is the tightening of sanctions, unbridled information, political, economic, sports, tourism and other pressure. Not only an attempt to nullify our culture and primordial traditions – family and religion – became a consequence. The consequence is not a direct result of the cause here,” he stressed. “For decades, imposing on the world the model that Lukashenko is a terrible dictator, the West itself turned out to be the forerunner of dictatorships: food, information, energy, moral, etc. The builders of fences and strangulation of the press have come to freedom of opinion and speech. Aleksandr Lukashenko, in turn, removed the obstacles for people entering Belarus by PCR tests, and more than a quarter of a million Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians visited Belarus over this summer. They can be found vacationing on the Braslav Lakes, in our shopping centres throughout country and at gasoline filling stations. ‘Come and see!’ – this phrase was said by the President many times for various reasons, and now this is our one of the people’s responses to the construction of new iron curtains from the West.”

“Belarus has the foundations, conditions and traditions, knowledge for the implementation of a fair sociospheric strategy for the development of society. There is an understanding in our country of the need, along with food security in the state (Belarus is currently the best in the world across many indicators of food security), to take on educational and scientific security,” explained the Head of the EcooM Analytical Centre. “Now the confrontation between systems has begun, more serious than during the Cold War, and we must mobilise, taking into account mistakes and giving a powerful response to the West which has been parasitising on cheap, artificial market prices for resources for decades. Call response speed is one of the main characteristics of any system, as well as accuracy. Aleksandr Lukashenko has been personally demonstrating a positive example for many years, and many of us think: how could it be otherwise?”

Trust in the authorities is often a conditional, subjective and subtle thing, Sergei Musiyenko specified.

“It depends on housing and communal services, on rural roads, doctors and local policemen, any official. Therefore, there is a potential for growth of trust towards the President and authorities. 10.1 percent of the respondents found it difficult to answer, which requires further study and concrete work from all of us” he added. “The President of Belarus sets an example of fairness and courage in actions, alongside efficiency in the interests of his country. The growth of the level of trust, even in a tough external sanctions regime, towards the President, the army, law enforcement agencies and the government is a serious guarantee. The level of trust in the authorities reflects hope for the future.”

Respondents were also asked to answer the question ‘To what extent do you trust the government?’ 69.9 percent of Belarusians answered ‘In general, I trust’, 19.4 percent of those polled responded that ‘In general, I don’t trust’ while 10.7 percent found it difficult to answer.

“Of course, now in the regime of unprecedented external sanctions, when the President is generally trusted by 76.3 percent, these figures would seem to be more modest, but, in my opinion, they are quite high,” said Sergei Musiyenko. “I will explain why. In December 2021, when we conducted a large-scale study before the referendum – Belarus. Opinion about the future – more than 10,000 people were surveyed. Then, in general, 59.8 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the government and 17.8 percent of respondents expressed distrust. Note that distrust then and now differs by 1.6 percent, although it has decreased, but there is a significant difference in those who found it difficult to answer: then it was 22.4 percent, and now it is 10.7 percent. As you can see, we are seeing a positive trend in the growth of public confidence in the government of Belarus due to a decrease in the share of those who find it difficult to answer, while the share of those who do not trust is approximately preserved (with a slight decrease).”

An increase of more than 10 percent is impressive, continued the Head of the EcooM Analytical Centre.

“And this is after six months of toughening sanctions and with external pressure that forces us to make quick and accurate decisions. The government also demonstrates a professional approach in the information space: a minimum of self-promotion, but more concrete results. This brings its own result, which is appreciated by people,” he noted.

“Have our utility bills become more expensive?” Sergei Musiyenko asked a question. “No while the situation in the West is quite different.”

“According to Le Figaro data on the results of trading on the EEX exchange, the price of the futures for 2023 reached the wholesale price of 1,130 Euros per MWh. Moreover, in 2022, the cost of electricity in France was only 85 Euros per MWh. In Berlin, a monthly travel pass costs 86 Euros, and a one-time trip is 3 Euros. You can compare with the cost of our trip yourself. I am sure that these figures also facilitate the increase of the rating of the government and the President,” stressed the Head of the EcooM Analytical Centre. “In 2017, 58 percent of Swiss voters voted to ban the construction of new nuclear power plants in the country. The head of the Green Party of Switzerland called the results of the referendum a historic moment: from now on, the country will rely on the energy of the sun, water and wind. The Beznau-1 nuclear power plant, operating on a pressurised water nuclear reactor using ordinary water as a moderator and coolant (which is not very environmentally friendly and inefficient), has been operating since 1969 and its first unit is the oldest operating commercial nuclear power plant in the world. Without cooling towers, excess heat spills out into the River Are. Thanks to this, the temperature in the river reached 24 degrees in the Bern region, enabling to cook fish in it soon. Since Switzerland is currently experiencing the first worldwide energy crisis and Europe is at its epicentre, and the level of uncertainty in the supply of electricity is unprecedented, of course, in such conditions, even such nuclear plants in Switzerland continue to operate. On August 28th, the Committee of Swiss Parliamentarians and Economic Representatives launched a petition demanding to lift the ban on the construction of nuclear power plants in the country in order to avoid electricity shortages under the slogan ‘Any form of climate-friendly electricity production is allowed’.

The assessment of the work of the Belarusian government is given by the citizens themselves.

“Our people, seeing the increase in pensions, wages paid on time and much more, understand and react to the government’s rating in their own way: by increasing their confidence,” Sergei Musiyenko stated. “Entrepreneurs also react. For example, one of our oldest and largest enterprises in the Vitebsk Region engaged in the cultivation of medical herbs is actively entering the markets of Russia and Kazakhstan with its raw materials and ready-made herbal teas. Now they are even discussing the possibility of launching a network of traditional establishments such as the Belarusian ‘Korchma’ [tavern] based on their products. The issue of mobile bath residential blocks is being also worked out. In the EU, these establishments will be in high demand in winter.”

Another sociological question sounded like this: ‘To what extent do you trust the army?’ 72.3 percent of Belarusians answered ‘In general, I trust’, 12.6 percent of respondents said that ‘In general, I don’t trust’ while 15.1 percent found it difficult to answer.

“In general, 72.3 percent of Belarusians now trust the army. In February 2021, this figure stood at 69.2 percent, when the EcooM Analytical Centre conducted a large study on the eve of the 6th Belarusian People’s Congress. In December 2021, when we also conducted a large-scale study before the referendum, 70.6 percent expressed confidence in the army in general and 11.8 percent expressed distrust, so we are seeing a positive trend in the growth of confidence in the country’s Armed Forces,” said Sergei Musiyenko. “In my opinion, this is natural for many reasons, especially in the light of what is happening in Ukraine.”

According to the Head of the EcooM Analytical Centre, it is impossible not to trust our army, there is an understanding among the population that this is our support and protection.

“Moreover, in the past, life has thrown us many stories about the combat readiness and combat capabilities of our Armed Forces, although we are not a party to the conflict, no matter how hard they try to impose it on us. In Ukraine, three times a day they announce that the Belarusian Armed Forces will enter the territory of Ukraine,” he continued. “We all remember the events of January 2021, when – at the invitation of the President of Kazakhstan – the peacekeeping company of the Special Forces Operations (SOF) of the Armed Forces of Belarus, in co-operation with the CSTO, was very quickly relocated to Kazakhstan, completed its task and localised the conflict. After all, strength, power, self-discipline of our most mobile unit was demonstrated, and there were no excesses in the zone of deployment of our peacekeepers. That’s saying a lot. We were among the first to establish SOF among neighbouring countries, the President paid great attention to this and now our people have seen their necessity and the fact that this is the future of the Armed Forces. Even the special military operation in Ukraine shows that such units are very efficient in modern conditions. The army is our protector. We do not have serious conflicts on the border, these are both the border troops and the Armed Forces in general. We see that we have this shield: high patriotism, training, mobilisation. People feel it. This is a reflection of the rising rating of the Armed Forces.”

The sociological survey also demonstrates the growth of trust in law enforcement agencies. So, in general, 67.5 percent of Belarusians trust law enforcement agencies, 19.4 percent in general do not trust them while 13.1 percent of respondents found it difficult to answer.

“In December 2021, in general, 62.5 percent expressed confidence in law enforcement agencies and 17.4 percent of respondents expressed no confidence. Now the level of trust in law enforcement agencies is 67.5 percent. This does not happen by itself. Law enforcement agencies very serious took up the patriotic education of young people. 16 military-patriotic clubs have been opened, and they are actively working. Let’s take, e.g., the Slavianski Bazaar in Vitebsk, how law enforcement agencies have clearly worked. We can calmly walk the streets of our cities day and night and in our country I don’t even think that you can’t leave a child alone. However, all this does not happen in one day or a month; this is a long story. Especially since we conducted large-scale surveys 1.5 years ago, and less than a year ago – in December 2021. We see these dynamics: stabilisation, normalisation of the attitude towards law enforcement agencies. Behind all this is the daily work of the district police officer, traffic police officer (we see the situation on the roads, the speed of settlement all issues connected with a road accident). Of course, all these issues are present in our lives, but we solve them, you cover them, hence, there is an increase in trust,” Sergei Musiyenko stated.

At the same time, according to the sociological survey, 76.6 percent of Belarusians generally do not trust the opposition, 9.1 percent trust it in general, and 14.3 percent found it difficult to answer.

“In February 2021, 63.4 percent of respondents didn’t trust the Belarusian opposition as a whole while 17.2 percent of Belarusians trusted. Now we see a significant increase in distrust towards the opposition: 76.6 percent, with a drop in trust in it totalling 9.1 percent,” Sergei Musiyenko stressed. “They are the creators of their own happiness. These are the feelings of people. At some point there was an overestimation of their capabilities, and they overestimated their modest capabilities. People who are incompetent, poorly educated and poorly prepared for life, have such an explosive teenage emotional message: to change everything, to destroy, believing that they would do better. But it doesn’t work like this. We went through it in 1917, and as a society in 1991. Destroying everything and building something new. However, life is different. We already had some kind of vaccinations against these shocks, and it worked. And an overestimation of some expectations. What to update? These youthful maximalist expectations that we will do everything better. People are watching the showdowns within this group, which cannot even be called a structure. The opposition is not still framed. In my understanding, the opposition is a healthy phenomenon. Actually, this is the development of some kind of alternative opinion, the search for alternative ways of development. But we do not observe this: no ways, no ideas, not even human decency. Because there are calls to make things worse for the people of Belarus and for us to be offended by the authorities. These figures show that even those who supported the opposition understand that something is wrong here. We see this.”

Sergei Musiyenko added that such an attitude of Belarusians towards the opposition is the result of a multifactorial influence.

“Because, you see, even what is happening now on the Polish and Lithuanian borders, when fences are being built, when NATO troops are concentrating, when refugees from Ukraine are coming, this is the work of both the Armed Forces and law enforcement agencies, that we don’t have conflict and problems. This is a clear, systematic work on the image of law enforcement agencies and the Armed Forces, and specific cases like the CSTO peacekeeping mission in Kazakhstan or visa-free travel. If there was such a clear action of peacekeepers within the UN framework in Ukraine and there were no shelling of Donetsk and Luhansk, people would not die. At the initial stage, since 2014, there would have been a clear localisation of aggression in Ukraine, and the development of events could have been different. Yes, history does not tolerate the subjunctive mood. Meanwhile, we see how the clear actions of the CSTO peacekeeping forces localised tension and stopped the escalation of pogroms and looting into more serious conflict. And we also see the inaction of the UN peacekeepers. People let all this through themselves, since they have access to many sources of information. We try to convey this information and see the reflection: people understand what is happening. They also understand what is happening among the opposition, and we see a corresponding attitude towards them,” he stated.

According to the study, about 60 percent of Belarusians trust the church in general.

“The question of the extent to which you trust the church, even in the answer, causes certain difficulties. T can be seen from the numbers: 57.9 percent trust in general, 31.1 percent of the respondents do not trust in general while 11 percent found it difficult to answer,” Sergei Musiyenko said. “In December 2021, when we conducted a large-scale study before the referendum, entitled Belarus. Opinion about the Future, more than 10,000 people were interviewed and the same question was asked. Then, 65.5 percent expressed confidence in the church in general and 17.3 percent of respondents expressed distrust. Note that distrust then and now differs almost twice, with a noticeable drop in trust, albeit not as sensitive.”

According to Sergei Musiyenko, President Aleksandr Lukashenko has always said that he sees one of his tasks in protecting the country from turmoil.

“During a visit to the Minsk Holy Spirit Cathedral in 2017 on Christmas Day, he called the Belarusian Orthodox Church the main ideologist in our country. In the future, we will rely on the help of the Orthodox Church and all confessions that live in our country and are ready to walk together creating and protecting our kind and comfortable home,” the President said at the time. On February 18th, 2003, an agreement on co-operation between the border guards and the Belarusian Orthodox Church was signed for the first time. An agreement on co-operation between the Republic of Belarus and the Belarusian Orthodox Church was signed on June 12th, 2003, and is still unique. Therefore, we all understand that not a single authority and administration, not a single media outlet or journalist in the country would think of refusing to actively assist the church,” he explained.

At the same time, Sergei Musiyenko accentuated the decrease in information activity in the media.

“We do not see new, interesting projects. For example, there could be a programme with a story about worthy priests and monks, both who lived on our lands and our contemporaries. Believe me, there are many such people. People become priests and monastics not because something is wrong in the worldly life, something did not work out in society. Once a change occurs in the soul, and when it is realised, other values appear. Formation of trust in the church is our common cause, in the name of the public good and is not intended to infringe on the rights of any confessions or citizens,” the Head of the EcooM Analytical Centre stated.

In the period from July 22nd to August 12th, 2022, by order of BelTA, the EcooM Analytical Centre conducted a sociological study, entitled Social Thinking under the Sanctions Regime. 1,560 respondents were surveyed in settlements of all regions of Belarus in compliance with the principle of representativeness for the population of Belarus from 18 years old by gender, age, employment, type of settlement and region of residence of the respondents. The statistical sampling error does not exceed 2.5 percent. The EcooM Analytical Centre is accredited by the Commission on Public Opinion Polls under the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus (accreditation certificate No. 000039 dated July 9th,2020, extended from July 29th, 2022).