US President Donald Trump announced that the United States is negotiating a deal to buy potash fertilisers from Belarus. Lithuania has already voiced its concerns about this. In an interview with the SB TV YouTube channel and Alfa Radio, political analyst Piotr Petrovsky explained why Vilnius is powerless in this issue and why Europe will eventually disregard its own sanctions, sb.by reports.
The expert noted that if the Americans purchase potash on Belarusian soil, Lithuania will need to address the issue with Washington rather than Minsk, ‘because if the Americans buy potash fertilisers on our territory and, once they become American property, they reach the Lithuanian border, it raises the question of how Vilnius would enforce sanctions against the Americans’.
He noted that transit routes can be established not only through Lithuania and referred to a recent meeting between Belarusian FM Maxim Ryzhenkov and Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski as an example, “This didn’t happen because the Poles suddenly decided to improve relations with Belarus. Their motivation is straightforward: there is money to be made from transit. Naturally, they got involved immediately. In fact, if you look closely, they are currently upgrading the transhipment facility in the Lublin Voivodeship, on the border with Belarus, at their own cost, without any financial support from the EU. Why? To boost Poland’s transit and throughput capacity. They opened the border crossings because both Minsk and Beijing tell them: ‘Dear Polish neighbours, please do not hinder transit’. We see that it involves a huge amount of money.”
The political scientist suggested that Americans could purchase Belarusian potash and then sell it to Europeans, who are unwilling to admit that their sanctions have failed, “I firmly believe that the Americans will buy from us and then supply it to the Europeans. The Europeans are unable to accept responsibility and recognise the failure of their sanctions policy. They will grumble and complain but will keep buying this Belarusian-American potash within their own markets.”
Mr. Petrovsky also shared data highlighting the economic advantages of potassium for the United States, stating, “The price in the American market is $340 per tonne, whereas in Europe it’s $420 per tonne. Americans will benefit from the European market by buying Canadian potassium, which will block their competitors — the Canadians they are pressuring — from entering this lucrative European market. Why would they do this? Because Canada aims to sign an association agreement with the EU to compete with the US in Europe, including in potassium sales. But would it be profitable for Canada to ship potassium to the EU given the logistics involved? I have serious doubts. Therefore, I believe the EU will accept this situation.”
The political analyst also noted the increase in fertiliser prices, which will put pressure on European farmers to urge their governments to act, “In Poland, the cost of a tonne of potassium fertiliser used to be 1,000 Zlotys; now it’s 3,500 Zlotys. I believe that under these conditions, farmers in Poland, Lithuania, Germany, and France will strongly pressure their governments, and those governments will simply ignore the issue.”
