Clear perspectives for tomorrow

The Belarusian economy is at the stage of recovery growth

Yury Mozolevsky

At a recent meeting with the senior members of the Council of Ministers, the President stressed that he expects the Government to fulfil the tasks set for this year to develop the country’s economy. The Head of State noted that the economy is doing well, but there are problematic issues that need to be addressed as soon as possible, since they can seriously affect the situation in the future. As the Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko reported, in five months the economy reached the targeted growth trajectory. Due to what this happened and what are the future prospects — we discussed this issue with the expert.

Statistics are encouraging

The fact that the Belarusian economy has entered a growth trajectory is best evidenced by statistics. The key indicator that indicates positive trends is the gross domestic product. In the five months of 2023, compared to the same period last year, it rose by 0.9 percent. Practically all sectors made a positive contribution. This includes agriculture, which grew by 5.4 percent, industrial production, which increased by 4.1 percent, and investments — plus 2.5 percent. There was an increase in retail trade turnover. The wholesale trade turnover also expanded by 3.4 percent, which confirms the sale of products that were produced by the industry. There is good performance in the export of goods and services. All this points to the recovery of the economy, Doctor of Economic Sciences Valery Baynev is sure.

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— In recent years, a fake economy has formed in the world. Basically, some bubbles are inflated, then they burst. The economy has become virtual. However, in Belarus, over the past decades, when the President came to power, a real economy has been developing — food production, clothing, furniture, equipment, and so on. The entire virtual economy is now approaching its collapse. Our country is implementing a model of a socially oriented market economy, which has proven its viability. Economic security is ensured on its basis. The implementation of strategic national interests, such as sustainable economic development and high competitiveness of the Belarusian economy, achieving a high level and quality of life for citizens, is directly related to the economic aspect. Belarus initially headed for creative development. It’s starting to pay off. The numbers speak for it. Every month, the growth rates of retail and wholesale trade are accelerating. The real disposable money income of the population is also growing. They have increased by 1.6 percent in four months and continue to gain. The industry is developing dynamically. Enterprises of the Industry Ministry maintain the pace of growth in production and exports.

YURY MOZOLEVSKY

The population practically did not feel the sanctions pressure. All social tasks of the state are carried out in full. Valery Baynev draws attention to the fact that inflation processes continue to slow down: in May, a historical minimum of annual inflation was recorded — 3.7 percent.
— We see that it continues to slow down further. Export growth continues to be high. A positive balance of foreign trade was ensured. In addition, there is a positive trend with investments. Despite external pressure, the country’s investment image is preserved, reflecting its reliability, and active work is being done to reinvest funds in the economy by foreign companies. The Head of State emphasised that a strong economy is a guarantee of stability in the Belarusian society. Moreover, the well-being and prosperity of citizens depends on how it works. After all, in fact, the growth of salaries, pensions, as well as other payments is impossible without an effective economy. There are all prerequisites for further successful development and a reasonable positive assessment of the results for the first half of the year.

GDP growth is supported by a gradual increase in domestic consumption, accompanied by a comparable increase in the supply of goods and services. Inflationary risks remain moderate, and the regulator has lowered the refinancing rate for the sixth time this year. 

— Let me remind you that today it is 9.5 percent per annum. There is a vision for the future. For the real sector, this is an opportunity to take cheaper loans, which will allow additional investment in the economy. 

Aleksandr Kushner

Union State affairs

The economist is sure that industrial development is the main priority now. It is clear that Belarus will not pull all this direction separately, it is necessary to co-operate. It is good that we have a Union State with Russia and the understanding of the leaders of the two countries about the need for deeper integration, including at the industrial level. After all, only together can we resist the West, which has declared a real economic war on our countries. 
— Under the conditions of illegitimate pressure, it is necessary to increase the output of import-substituting products and work more actively with friendly countries, primarily with Russia, which we are successfully doing. The departure of Western competitors from the market of the Union State has expanded the opportunities for closer co-operation between Belarus and Russia. Our countries are forming a single economic space. Particular attention is paid to the development of industrial co-operation, which allows increasing mutual trade turnover, helps to strengthen the economy of the Union State and improve the well-being of citizens of our countries. Within the framework of the Union State, Belarus and Russia are implementing joint investment projects, one of the goals of which is import substitution and the achievement of technological and energy sovereignty. Our innovation and technology sector should not depend on imported materials and components. Therefore, it became possible to use Russian funds to make a joint innovation breakthrough.
The expert recalled that Russia is the largest investor in the Belarusian economy. And Belarus is Russia’s main trading partner among the CIS countries. 
— Belarus and Russia are currently implementing joint investment projects. An intergovernmental agreement on providing the government of Belarus with a state financial loan to Russia for a total amount of up to 105 billion Russian rubles was signed in November 2022. Lists of projects by types of products have been formed. Of course, today the most important tasks are import substitution and increasing the share of innovative production. This is a matter of national security. Also, more attention should be paid to the implementation of the economic programs of the Union State. It’s time to release your product.
Valery Baynev draws attention to the fact that the transition to mutual settlements in national currencies allowed Belarus and Russia not to depend on the exchange rate fluctuations of the dollar and the euro and speculation in the foreign exchange markets.
— Foreign currencies should be treated as injections into the circulatory system of the economy. If in this system there are alien bodies in the form of the dollar and the euro, then this always inevitably leads to distortions in economic and production processes. Therefore, the main task that Belarus and Russia, as well as the SCO and BRICS countries are now solving, is the use of national currencies for mutual settlements. This avoids any blocking of transactions. Thus, Western banks can block money at any time. Moreover, they see all payments and transactions, and all commercial information becomes extremely open to the American intelligence services. And this is unacceptable.

By Vladislav Sychevich