Turkish march

Recep Tayyip Erdogan took an oath in front of Turkish parliamentarians on June 3rd and entered a new presidential term

The 69-year-old Turkish President received 52 percent of the vote in the second round of presidential elections, defeating opposition leader Kemal Kılıcdaroglu. Even before the final results of the will of the people, Erdogan announced the start of a large-scale political reform, and after the inauguration, he radically changed the composition of the government, dismissing 15 out of 17 ministers. He announced the adoption of a new Constitution and announced the ‘complete transformation’ of Türkiye after his victory. Thus, there was a reason to take a closer look at the policy of the Turkish leader, as well as the prerequisites and results of his victorious march through the arenas of political battles.

‘Maidan’ is a Turkic word

Erdogan has been personally familiar with the new, modern meaning of the term ‘maidan’ — a coup d’état since 2016, when the Turkish President had to resist the ‘conspiracy of the military’. So he certainly had a good idea of all the possible consequences of winning the elections in 2023. And, we must say, the situation in the country on the eve of the election campaign quite fit into the framework of Sharpe’s famous training manual: a strong, liberal-minded candidate from the opposition (as a result, Kemal Kılıcdaroglu won 45 percent of the vote in the first round and 48 percent in the second); a positive economic background for the protests (a strong fall in the national currency, damage from a devastating earthquake); growing dissatisfaction with Erdogan in the collective West (refuses to impose sanctions against Russia).
Oddly enough, in this situation, the second round of voting was more profitable for the incumbent Head of State than for the opposition. Two weeks of respite brought down the protest mood and gave the President’s supporters an opportunity to concentrate on protecting public order and negotiate with the dropped out candidates. 

Kemal Kılıcdaroglu acted desperately, throwing the last trump card on the table: he accused Russia of interfering in the Turkish elections.

The fact that the opposition, if it comes to power, will impose sanctions against Moscow, was known before. According to the logic of things, this should have been followed by a minimal loss of the opposition in the elections, the withdrawal of people to the streets, the demand for a recount, litigation, the recognition of Kılıcdaroglu as the President by the world media. But this time it didn’t work out. The West did not give the go-ahead to such a scenario.

They preserved the status quo

There are several reasons for this. Firstly, Kemal Kılıcdaroglu would hardly be able to fully fulfill the promises. The fact is that in the same May, the Republican Alliance, led by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, won the parliamentary elections and won the majority of seats in the Mejlis. Under such conditions, Kılıcdaroglu would be a clearly weak President, despite significant electoral support, and Erdogan, as the leader of the new opposition, would gladly shift a bunch of social problems onto his competitor.
However, both Erdogan and his supporters reacted more than condescendingly to the activities of Kılıcdaroglu. The question here is that, in fact, among the ruling elite, the leader of the Republican People’s Party himself is not particularly held for the opposition. Erdogan considers Gulenism, a political movement named after the preacher Fethullah Gulen, to be the main danger for Türkiye. 

The Gulenists are long-standing and strong ‘clients’ of the United States in Türkiye, their movement was actively supported when the ‘pro-American’ Heads of State were in power: Turgut Ozal, Suleyman Demirel, Tansu Ciler had mutual understanding with the Gulen movement. 

The preacher himself left Türkiye back in 1999, a warrant for his arrest was issued in 2014, but, judging by the reaction of the Turkish authorities to the events, his work lives on.
However, it is very likely that no one needs political turbulence in Türkiye now, so the incumbent President was given the opportunity to win relatively calmly. In principle, for the West, the results of the Turkish elections fit perfectly into the win-win paradigm, an acceptable result for any outcome. If Kılıcdaroglu wins — well, there is a new lever of pressure on Russia and less unpredictability in foreign policy. Erdogan’s victory is also not bad: despite some waywardness, he is well known, his way of thinking and capabilities are perfectly represented. The main thing that is required from Türkiye, he fulfils.

Torrential balance

This main thing lies in the geopolitical position of Istanbul. The exceptional significance of the city, which is projected onto the entire region, to say the least, lies in the control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles: this is the most important military-economic artery in the world. According to the Montreux Convention of 1936, Türkiye is a kind of guarantor of the free passage of merchant ships through the straits. But if Istanbul sees a military threat against itself, it has the right to close the straits for warships. The thing is that this is a rather fragile balance, although it still works today. 

The global significance of the straits for world stability lies in the fact that the world power that controls the straits becomes a strategic hegemon.

Rise without a flip

Even without waiting for the election results, Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the drafting of a new Turkish Constitution and unequivocally announced the ‘complete transformation’ of the country after his victory. What does the Head of the Turkish State mean? First of all, we need to remember that during the years of Erdogan’s leadership, the Turkish political landscape has already changed a lot. Many people remember that in 2003 he came to power as prime minister: Türkiye was then a parliamentary one and the Head of State was elected by deputies. In 2014, he won the first direct presidential elections, Türkiye became presidential. By strengthening his power, Erdogan strengthened the country’s position in the international arena. If 20 years ago the elites were very much oriented towards the United States, now the Turkish leader is much more independent in his decisions. In 2009, an agreement was signed in Nakhichevan on the establishment of the international organisation Turkic Council. In 2021, Erdogan announced a name change: now this association is called the Organisation of Turkic States and includes, in addition to Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and, as observers, Hungary, Turkmenistan and Northern Cyprus. 

Analysts have long been talking about the promotion of the concept of ‘Turkic World’ and the gathering of Turkic-speaking peoples under the hand of Türkiye.

In 2021, Erdogan even caused a local scandal by taking a picture with the so-called map of the ‘Turkic World’, which was presented to the President by Turkish nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli. Thus, in the picture, which has spread all over the world, Erdogan and Bahceli are holding a map, on which a huge territory is included in the ‘Turkic World’, including a significant part of the lands of Russia.
Regardless of what is behind this photo, it is based on the understanding of the fact that Erdogan has clearly established himself as a politician of a regional scale. It must be assumed that his future plans are to go beyond the region. The status of the key negotiator on the Ukrainian issue and the démarche when Sweden and Finland are admitted to NATO clearly speak of this. And NATO membership only helps Erdogan in this: the Turkish leader uses the status of a US ally in the military bloc as a lever to influence the pursuit of his own interests.

The East is a promising direction

It is somehow customary to ‘forget’ economic projects for political battles. In his official congratulations to Erdogan on his victory in the elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin considered it necessary to mention the gas hub and the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant under construction in Türkiye. These are the most interesting projects, thanks to which Türkiye, which is not rich in energy resources, is moving into the category of energy powers. The state has an exceptionally advantageous location for the logistics of energy flows. Both Russia and Iran are interested in transport corridors through Türkiye, and even, to some extent, the Arab countries, not to mention the Transcaucasus. 

In fact, the creation of an energy hub in Türkiye and the focus on producers from the East make it a serious Eurasian player.

At the same time, Türkiye will remain a key partner of the West: this is NATO membership, the transit of resources, and the containment of the flow of illegal refugees. At the same time, Ankara has good chances for co-operation with the EAEU, as well as for joining the SCO and BRICS. It is clear that Erdogan is planning a new breakthrough in the development of the country. And it must be assumed that the goals laid down in changing the Turkish basic law should help secure Türkiye’s role as a global player influencing the fate of the planet. To change the world, Erdogan changes the constitution. That is, it starts with itself. Is not it?

By Maksim Korotkin