Movement to the right

Nationalists and ultra-conservatives strengthen their positions in European politics

The right turn trend in EU countries is not new in itself. It was first talked about at the beginning of the last decade, when forces that had long been considered marginal and unpopular suddenly began to arouse interest among the electorate. The reason for this was the migration crisis. The predominantly left-wing parties, which were at the helm of power in a significant part of the countries of the continent, could not offer a clear strategy for receiving migrants, their inclusion in the normal life of society. The result was a series of monstrous attacks.

The migration crisis and the surge in terrorist activity directly related to it have become, although the main, but by no means the only trigger for the growth of the popularity of the right in Europe. Both the general dissatisfaction with the socio-political situation in the EU and problems on the outer circuit related to US pressure and illegal sanctions against Russia, which led to a long-term economic recession in the EU, made a difference.

Nevertheless, the true renaissance of the right began with the advent of COVID-19, which the EU authorities tried to fight with measures whose severity was by no means proportional to their effectiveness. From the very beginning, the right has criticised the strategy of lockdowns and all kinds of restrictions, and then the practice of introducing covid passports. As the Belarusian experience of fighting the pandemic later showed, in many respects the critics of the national authorities, nationalists and Eurosceptics turned out to be right: successful suppression of the spread of the virus turned out to be quite possible without a stop signal for the economy.

The Abduction of Europa

Right-wingers and Eurosceptics across Europe are rapidly gaining political weight. From Italy to Finland and from Hungary to France, nationalist forces are infiltrating parliaments and occupying key positions in the system of state administration. A striking example is the victory of the Brothers of Italy party, led by George Meloni, last September, which brought the right to power in the Apennines. Even more comfortable are the right-wing forces in Hungary, where the leader of the Fidesz party, Viktor Orban, is pursuing a surprisingly balanced and reasonable policy both domestically and internationally.
Even in the supranational bodies of the EU there are tendencies towards an increase in the number of the right. The authoritative publication Politico generally believes that if the elections to the European Parliament were held now, then the sceptics from among the ‘European conservatives and reformers’ could take the third position on a par with the Renew Europe party, and that, by the way, has 89 mandates. In comparison with the elections of 2019, this will mean, the authors of Politico do not hide their surprise, a huge increase in 23 seats at once.

What is characteristic, it is the Italians Meloni mentioned above who give this significant increase. But the German far-right from the Alternative for Germany, which is experiencing an explosive growth in popularity at home, is quite capable of ensuring the growth of 15 mandates for the Identity and Democracy group, which could take 77 seats.

Battle for minds and hearts

A significant future strengthening of the positions of Eurosceptics in the EU Parliament is a logical consequence of their growing influence at the national level. Perhaps the sensation of the summer, although expected, was the first victory of the German far right in local elections. The representative of the Alternative for Germany Robert Sesselmann became the head of the Landrat of the Sonneberg District in Thuringia with a population of 56 thousand people. Zesselman beat the CDU candidate backed by the left and the Greens with 52.8 percent of the vote.
Of course, one can be a little ironic, knowing that Sonneberg is one of the smallest constituencies in Germany, but the fact is that the AfD has not achieved such a result since its creation in 2013.
The second significant event of the summer in Germany was the summing up of the results of the June Insa poll, dedicated to the political preferences of the Germans. The AfD received a sensational 20 percent. For comparison: in January, only 15 percent of those polled adhered to right-wing views. We must not lose sight of the fact that some of the supporters of the ultra-right are a protest electorate that is dissatisfied with the policy of the authorities. However, we have to admit that the actions of the AfD and its rhetoric are definitely appealing to an increasing number of Germans. This is especially true of its attitude to the Ukrainian crisis, which contrasts sharply with the position of other parties.

So far, the main problem of the AfD is its non-handshake status in the eyes of other parties. The speaker of the Landtag of Thuringia from the Green Party Frau Böhm lashed out at voters for electing Sesselmann and flatly refused to work with his administration after the victory of the right-wing candidate in Sonneberg.

According to experts, sabotage is not so bad. If the AfD continues to gain supporters at the same pace, and the ruling coalition loses them, then administrative resources and provocations may be used, and in extreme cases, access to elections for members of the party can be completely restricted as ‘proven to be right-wing extremist’.

Right march

Right-wing politicians are climbing higher and higher in the hierarchy of political forces in different regions of Europe. Moreover, as the Ukrainian conflict becomes more and more protracted and the desire for escalation, demonstrated by the collective West, the trend is gaining momentum. So, in Madrid this summer, the representative of the conservative People’s Party Isabel Diaz Ayuso won. The same party eventually turned out to be the winner of the extraordinary parliamentary elections held on July 23rd.
A painful defeat was suffered by the leftist forces in Greece. There, three ultra-right parties took part in the parliamentary elections at once, gaining a total of 13 percent of the vote, which became a real sensation. Considering that New Democracy, which became the leader of the voting, belongs to the right-centric forces, one can say that another European country has made its right turn.
Things are going well for the rightists in France too. There, Marine Le Pen was able to build a very influential faction in the National Assembly from members of her National Rally party — they have 89 seats, which could have seemed fantastic even in the last elections. Moreover, the prospects for Madame Le Pen are the most rosy: President Macron seems to be doing everything so that the left forces first lose parliament, and then he himself leaves the Elysee Palace, giving way to the lady. The right-wingers managed to strengthen their position with anti-migrant rhetoric amid the July pogroms that gave France several fiery nights, and now everyone is waiting for the outcome of the crisis in Niger.

Such different right

In the meantime, in the south and north, the right settles in power, in the east of Europe, the existence of two systems continues, which, it seems, should be as like as two peas, but nevertheless they are too different. We are talking about Poland, in which the right-wing PiS is preparing for the elections on October 15th and whipping up military hysteria, and Hungary, which is increasingly moving away from its NATO colleagues in matters of the war in Ukraine. What are only the high-profile exchange of captured ethnic Hungarians with the participation of the Russian Orthodox Church and the direct threat of blocking military trenches to Kiev from the EU if the Zelensky regime does not exclude OTP Bank from the list of international ‘sponsors of the war’.
Judging by the events of the summer, the Duda-Morawiecki tandem is ready to take any measures to maintain power. The law on relations with Russia, because of which Poland was cast sidelong glances even in the United States, was passed, and a large-scale purge of the ranks of dissidents in the ranks of the bureaucracy began. At the same time, there were persistent rumours in the Polish expert community that if PiS was not sure of its victory, it would organise a provocation in the border area against Belarus or the Kaliningrad Region.

The second option seemed fantastic until the beginning of August, however, the massive transfer of units of the Polish Army to the east and the incident with the alleged overflight of our helicopters suggest that this version was accepted in Warsaw as a working one.

The events of this year clearly show that the period of left-wing dominance in Europe is coming to an end. They failed to cope with the migration crisis, did not prevent a large-scale military conflict and almost brought the continent to the brink of total war. Of course, no one gives guarantees that the right will be able to solve all problems, but the Europeans, tired of the permanent threat, want to try to change something. And while everything goes to the fact that the right will soon become the dominant political force.

By Anton Popov