Growth of GDP and personal income:
how the Belarusian economy is developing
The President of Belarus,
Aleksandr Lukashenko, “The shock restructuring of the global political, economic and financial relations prompts every country to think beyond protective and compensatory measures. We need to calculate the strategic prospects for the development of the national economy (hence the state). We need to look to the future.” During a government conference to discuss the improvement of the system of planning and overseeing the implementation of strategic projects on October 20th, 2023
At the beginning of the year, the President set the goal of achieving a positive growth trajectory, doing everything possible to adapt the economy to unprecedented external pressure. Despite the West’s attempts to strangle the Belarusian economy with a lasso of sanctions, our country is successfully developing and responds to all the apocalyptic forecasts of overseas ‘experts’ with confident growth in GDP and household incomes. Thanks to timely measures taken at the level of the Head of State and government, the dynamics of economic growth have been restored and maintain a positive trend.
Since May, GDP has been growing monthly. Based on the results of nine months, the growth rate was 103.5 percent.
Industrial enterprises operate stably. By the way, in terms of industrial production growth rates, Belarus remains a leader among the EAEU countries. This dynamic is accelerated by the mechanical engineering industry. Maximum production volumes have been achieved over the past five years for combines and certain types of household appliances. During January–September, about 49 thousand passenger cars were produced. And this is almost four times more than in the same period last year. During this period, 2.2 times more televisions were produced compared to January–September 2022. Inventories of finished products decreased by almost Br1 billion.
The situation in the country’s financial market is also stable. In general, there was a net supply of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. International reserve assets of Belarus as of November 1st, 2023, amounted to $8.1471 billion in equivalent.
This year, domestic demand provides significant support to the country’s economy due to the dynamic recovery of investment and consumer activity. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets amounted to almost 112 percent. At the same time, sources and mechanisms for investment financing of infrastructure projects are being actively sought. Thanks to this, more than 1.7 thousand kilometres of roads have already been repaired in the country this year, and seven bridge structures have been reconstructed. Physical culture and health complexes were put into operation in Fanipol and Uzda. One of the largest schools for 1.5 thousand children began operating in Grodno. Six new kindergartens were opened, construction of a new polyclinic building at the Nesvizh Central District Hospital was completed, and four district hospitals were reconstructed. Recently, a new clinic and radiological building of the Mogilev Regional Oncology Dispensary was put into operation in Grodno.
Order on the shelves
The level of annual inflation has been maintained within acceptable parameters, Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko said yesterday during a meeting of the Council of Ministers,
“The measures taken jointly with the National Bank made it possible to maintain the inflation rate within acceptable parameters.”
The most important qualitative indicator of the economy’s performance is the real disposable income of the population. They increased by 5.1 percent in January–August.
“In addition, in September we reached a wage level of Br1,940 (an increase in real terms of 10.1 percent). The task of increasing the level of income in the budget sector is being progressively solved,” the head of the government noted.
Foreign trade indicators are also growing. Over nine months, the growth rate of physical export volumes amounted to 127 percent. Simply put, Belarus supplied 27 percent more products in physical volumes. As for foreign trade in goods, in September the balance was positive for the first time since the beginning of the year. This means that the mechanisms used to increase export supplies are working. Diversification of export supplies continues and helps compensate for external shocks, as well as level out lost markets.
Next year the Belarusian economy will continue to develop dynamically. And it’s balanced. The guidelines are set by Presidential Decrees No. 307 and No. 308 of October 2nd, 2023. Due to large-scale investment and production programs, the sale of Belarusian products to foreign markets and the expansion of domestic demand, GDP growth is planned by 3.8 percent, and real disposable income of the population will increase by 3.5 percent.
Finance Minister Yuri Seliverstov,
“For nine months, the execution of the republican budget is about 77 percent, local — about 73 percent. The consolidated budget surplus is Br1.5 billion. This trend continues. We think that we will fulfil the annual plan for republican budget revenues in November ahead of schedule. As for the locals, they are on track; by the end of the year everything planned will be completed. At the end of the year we planned a deficit, but I think that we will be within zero values. In terms of salary growth, everything is going according to schedule. All decisions were made. A decision has already been made on the base rate from January 1st in the amount of Br250. So we don’t have any problems here.”