It has leaked

The scandal surrounding the leak of secret documents from the Pentagon dealt a serious blow to the prestige of the United States. It became even more obvious that this country cannot be trusted.

The leak of secret Pentagon documents has been the loudest sensation of recent weeks. More like a leak, actually. There are still rumours about what happened. Meanwhile, high-ranking military and politicians around the world are feverish from what happened. The scandal erupted on April 7th. However, the first documents began to appear on the global network in early March. The number of photocopies of classified American files is gradually increasing. Now there are more than a hundred of them, but they continue to publish more and more. Basically, these are analytical notes, the so-called briefings — brief reports with an assessment of the situation. There are also larger files. On the other hand, the details contained in them affect sensitive aspects of both the international situation and the domestic politics of very many countries.

Overseas managers

Initially, attention was drawn to the details of the fighting in Ukraine. The discussion was aroused by the numbers of losses of the parties given in American documents at the end of 2022: 16,000-17,500 dead Russians and 61,000-71,000 from the Ukrainian side. In the public space, representatives of the Pentagon cited completely different data, much larger and not at all in favour of Russia. After some confusion, they began to justify themselves, other documents immediately appeared, where the statistics had already changed in a mirror opposite. And then everything started up, incrementally.
It turned out that the US military is not only informed about the military situation on the Ukrainian fronts, they actually carry out all command and control and operations planning. 
At the same time, the level of competence of the generals and officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is very critically assessed. There is a lot of scepticism about the supply and technical condition of the Ukrainian army. In particular, there is a shortage of missiles for the S-300 systems, which threatens the entire air defence system of Ukraine. A lot of details are given, up to the combat schedule of individual brigades. 
It turned out that several groups of Ukrainian military with a total number of up to 60,000 people are being trained at NATO bases in Europe.
Moscow’s reaction followed immediately. Russian President Spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on the leak of secret Pentagon documents on Ukraine, “We do not even have slight doubts about the direct or indirect involvement of the United States and NATO in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The degree of their involvement in this situation is gradually increasing. We are following this process. Of course, this complicates the whole story, but this will not affect the result of the special operation.”

Under the microscope

  From bad to worse! It turned out that Egypt, one of the key US partners in the Middle East, is considering the possibility of supplying weapons to Russia. 
The leaked documents contain indications that members of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad were involved in organising mass protests against judicial reform. And this means that the United States keep even the closest allies under the microscope. 
Publicly, assurances have been heard more than once that the American special services are not engaged in operational activities on their territory. And this is backed up by relevant agreements. However, non-compliance by US intelligence with these agreements has already been confirmed earlier. Let us recall at least the high-profile scandal of 2015, when it turned out that the National Security Agency was listening in to the entire leadership of Germany, including Chancellor Angela Merkel.
There is something interesting about Belarus as well. Namely, about the sabotage in Machulishchi. In general terms, the Belarusian version of what happened is confirmed. True, with a small caveat — supposedly some initiative officers of the SBU turned everything around, without informing their leadership.
But how much can we trust this leaked information? Who is behind the leak? Now the answers are sought all over the world. The initial scepticism of security experts is replaced by growing confidence that most of the published documents are original. But there are different hypotheses about the organisers of the leak. 
Firstly, the Americans themselves could have done this in order to shift the responsibility for the hostilities in Ukraine onto the Ukrainians themselves. Say, they helped them, supplied them, and they are simply crooked. At the same time, wag a finger at allies: we see everything, we know everything, we follow everyone. Secondly, this may be the most successful Russian intelligence operation in recent times. Still, the documents of the United States, a frank opponent of Russia, leaked into the network. There are also quite exotic assumptions, such as the fact that this is the work of the SBU.
Of course, the truth will come out sooner or later. But even now we can say that there is little benefit for the Americans from the leak. The reaction of their official representatives testifies to confusion.

Leaks and provocations

A senior U.S. intelligence official called the leak ‘a nightmare for the Five Eyes’, referring to the United States, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada (the so-called Five Eyes countries) who share intelligence extensively. One way or another, the US Department of Justice launched an official investigation.
Now the Americans are making efforts to minimise the resulting negative effect. Thus, their sources claim that the nature of the leaked information indicates the presence of agents at the very top of the Russian political and military leadership.
Although most of the documents were clearly obtained using technical means, that is, by wiretapping and hacking computer networks. It is even stated that after a large-scale leak, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to revise the plans of their widely publicised counter-offensive. But this may already be evidence that the leak itself is part of a large campaign to mislead the enemy.
This is now being actively pursued by both Russia and the opposing coalition led by the United States. The main task is to hide your own plans and opportunities and provoke the other side into hasty and reckless steps.
In this context, we can also consider the recent provocation with the interview of the China’s Ambassador to the European Union Fu Cong, published on April 5th by The New York Times. They presented the case as if Beijing did not support Moscow at all. Experts immediately raised doubts about this. Indeed, in fact, the diplomatic worker disavowed the entire official line of the President of the People’s Republic of China 
At the same time, Western propaganda immediately began to spin the ‘news’, thus ensuring the visit of Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen to China. This campaign was not stopped even by an official denial by the Chinese delegation to the EU. In fact, American journalists deliberately distorted (‘misinterpreted’, in diplomatic terms) the words of the PRC diplomat. And all this with one goal — to split the Russian-Chinese relations.
For sure, such information stuffing will continue. This is an integral part of the military-political confrontation. And yet, whoever was behind the leaked documents, this scandal dealt a serious blow to the prestige of the United States. There was another and very convincing confirmation that this power cannot be trusted in anything.

Double-dealing, provocation and hypocrisy have become an integral part of Washington’s political style. Actually, in Minsk they knew this before. Now the whole world can see it.

By Ph.D. Vadim Gigin