Risk of using nuclear weapons at its peak since Cold War, study reads
The risk of using nuclear weapons has reached its highest level since the Cold War, because the ‘nuclear-armed states’ are beginning to actively increase their arsenals – as stated in a report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), TASS reports
The report reads that ‘there are clear indications that the reductions that have characterised global nuclear arsenals have ended’, and ‘all the nuclear-armed states (Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) are increasing or upgrading their arsenals’.
According to researchers, most of these countries are ‘sharpening nuclear rhetoric’ and ‘the role nuclear weapons play in their military strategies’, and this also contributes to the strengthening of international tension.
SIPRI says that all nuclear-armed states are actively developing programmes related to nuclear weapons, or are increasing their existing arsenals. In particular, ‘in 2021, the UK announced its decision to increase the ceiling on its total warhead stockpile’, also stating that it ‘would no longer publicly disclose figures’, while France ‘officially launched a programme to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine’. It is reported that India and Pakistan are ‘expanding their nuclear arsenals’ and ‘develop new types of nuclear delivery systems’. Israel is also ‘modernising its nuclear arsenal’.
The study reads that North Korea is ‘actively conducting ballistic missile tests’ and, according to experts, ‘has now assembled up to 20 warheads, and possesses enough fissile material for a total of 45-55 warheads’. Finally, according to SIPRI experts, satellite images indicate the ongoing work on construction of 300 new missile silos in China.
According to the report, the situation is aggravated by the fact that ‘relations between the world’s great powers have deteriorated further’, and this has led to a number of problems in the field of nuclear diplomacy. In particular, the strategic stability talks between Russia and the United States, which account for more than 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, have stalled after the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. In addition, permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, Russia, France, the United States and the United Kingdom) have not joined the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action aimed at development of Iran's nuclear programme has not yet been agreed by the negotiators.
SIPRI experts conclude that, taking into account the observed changes in the military strategies of the leading global powers and the stagnation of diplomatic efforts to disarm, the global inventory of nuclear warheads could soon begin to increase for the first time since the Cold War. In the future, this trend may turn out to be long-term and last ‘over the coming decade’.
