Dance of the Grey Swans

Who will pull through the world economy amid global cataclysms and their unpredictable consequences?

Any natural disasters with unpredictable consequences in modern management theory are called Grey Swan. And in the conditions of Grey Swan event, it is important to realise how to quickly respond to the tyranny of the random, make prompt decisions, and most importantly, how to ensure the stable operation of the economy and finance. In this matter, the key is to find an answer: which countries will show the highest economic growth and determine the dynamics of the world economy.

Personal forecast for each country

Furthermore, according to the forecasts of the fund, the combined contribution of the United States and the European Union to the growth of the world economy will be only 10 percent. Interestingly, earlier Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva said: in 2023, a third of the world economy will suffer from a recession, global growth will be held back by the economies of America, China and the EU, which are ‘slowing down at the same time’. She predicted that half of the EU would face recession, but America could avoid it.
In January, the World Bank also released its forecast: global economic growth will slow to 1.7 percent in 2023, and any new negative event (including Grey Swans) could trigger a recession.
According to UN forecasts, global economic growth will be the slowest in decades. It will be about 1.9 percent, while last year it reached 3 percent. The consequences of the conflict in Ukraine (food and energy crises, a sharp increase in inflation, an increase in the debt burden) will only intensify in 2023. Economic growth in the United States will be at the level of 0.4 percent, the European Union — only 0.1 percent, however, it will be the highest in China — 4.8 percent.
Other research centres predict that the largest growth, at the level of 5-8 percent, will be demonstrated by the countries of the Middle East, South Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Oceania. 

Boomerang effect 

Not so long ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that developed countries were the driving force of the world economy in the 20th century, but in the 21st century developing countries are likely to be on the rise.  So, in mid-January, the American bank Goldman Sachs Group announced the dismissal of 3,200 employees, which is associated with $2 billion losses of the banking giant. Let us remember that this is how the infamous bank Lehman Brothers began its fall, the bankruptcy of which launched the global financial crisis of 2008.
In early February, the Boeing Corporation shared its plans to cut 2,000 employees in 2023 from the finance and human resources departments in The Seattle Time. Their functions are planned to be transferred to the Indian consulting company called Tata Consulting Service in order to reduce costs. Boeing Corporation demonstrates negative performance amid the cessation of deliveries to Russia due to sanctions, the development of domestic passenger aircraft industry in China, Russia, as well as failures with the release and disasters of new versions of Boeing aircraft.  As a result, ex-premier Liz Truss announced her readiness to appeal to the wrong course of the Sunak economy and return to big politics. 

Military mode 

In order to get out of the crisis, the calls of European politicians to transfer the economy to a military regime are becoming more and more distinct. At the end of January, the leading faction of the European Parliament, directly President of the European People’s Party (EPP) Manfred Weber called for the transfer of the EU economy to a military footing.
The difficult economic situation of the EU countries is expressed not only in vicious appeals. These calls are supplemented by absurd and dreamy phrases of the highest European officials. Thus, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen never ceases to vividly predict that EU sanctions ‘will plunge the Russian economy into recession for decades’.
However, already in February 2023, the IMF changed the forecast for the Russian economy for 2023 from a fall of 2.3 percent to an increase of 0.3 percent. Experts from the investment bank Sinara and Freedom Finance Global allow the growth of the Russian economy to the level of 0.7 percent.
In the context of positive expectations regarding the Russian economy, the latest statements by the Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva at the forum in Davos should be mentioned. She emphasised, “Even centuries of war have ended at the negotiating table, and the sooner we find a way to end this terrible war, the better for everyone. And of course, it will be great news for the global economy.”
As you can see, the forecasts for the points of growth of the world economy differ from different analytical centres. In principle, it is already clear who will pull through the entire world economy in 2023 — developing countries. But something else is important for you and me — the Republic of Belarus is currently focusing on a thorough assessment of the above-described trends in the global economy in the development of its foreign trade relations. 
We are actively co-operating with regions that show and will show consistently high growth rates for the coming decades. The leading contributors of global growth will enable us to ensure the high performance of our national economy.

In other words, we are witnessing the boomerang effect in action: the Anglo-Saxons, having imposed sanctions against Belarus and Russia, themselves got into a political mess with a permanent change of governments amid a deteriorating economy, falling living standards and discontent of their own citizens.


By Aleksei Avdonin, an analyst with the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research (BISR)