The main trends of globalization

The main trends of globalization and their impact on the prospects of the Eurasian Union

Globalization has its own characteristics, among which are its trends. What are these trends and how they will affect the prospects for the formation and functioning of the Eurasian Union?

The first trend is the growing role of non-Western countries in the world economic, political and financial system. This trend will allow the future Eurasian Union to seek and find new powerful allies, which will strengthen its position in the world arena.

The second trend is the losing of influence of the former countries of the West in the traditionally «Western» international organizations — WTO, IMF, World Bank and the UN. A growing number of employees in these organizations from non-Western countries will in future allow the Eurasian Union to rely on more objective character in solving problems, affecting the national interests of countries that are parties to the integration association.

The third trend is the growing role of non-Western capital in the global economy. Non-Western economies, especially China, India, Russia and Brazil, surely rank among the world`s largest investors.

The fourth trend is the emergence of new powerful non-Western international organizations in the world: SCO, CSTO, BRICS. Ability to carry out their views on the world stage using membership in these organizations will increase the geopolitical and geo-economic potential of the future Eurasian Union.

The fifth trend is the increasing ineffectiveness of NATO, which was demonstrated in the high-cost and protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Lessons from the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and the low efficiency of the most powerful military alliance in struggle against the guerrilla movement led to a more cautious view of governments of the countries participating in NATO of the large-scale military invasion. This reduces the ability of the West to threaten military intervention of NATO to non-Western countries.

The sixth trend is the increasing debt burden of the Western countries and reducing the effectiveness of their economies against the growing efficiency of the economies of the leading non-Western countries. These problems lead to a decline in the prestige of the Western countries and their strategic options. It should be used to raise the profile of the future Eurasian Union in the world.

The seventh trend is the consolidation of businesses. The countries with the greatest number of large multinational corporations have the greatest competitive advantage in the global arena. The USA leadership in world politics is closely linked to the dominance of the large number of large transnational corporations based in the USA. The rapid growth in number of large multinationals in China allows it to count on surpassing the USA influence on the global stage after the Chinese TNCs will take the place of USA TNCs.

The eighth trend is the increasing role of assets, which concentrate in state funds. State funds of China, Russia, the Arab countries, on account of their size, can combine financial investment with political benefits for theirs countries. It is an important factor for enhancing the influence of the future Eurasian Union on account of Russia’s membership in it and strategic partnership with China.

The ninth trend is the emergence of projects of globalization, which compete with the Western. The Chinese one is actively forming at the moment. After the start of the global crisis in 2008 a view has become increasingly common that the USA economy lost the status of the locomotive of the world economy and that this role went over to China. Naturally, the USA is unlikely to come to terms with it and lose leadership without a fight. For the USA the situation is complicated by the attempt by some EU politicians to develop their own European projects of globalization in which the world`s most important center of decision-making will be in Brussels and not in Washington. It is important to determine the role of the Eurasian Union in the competition for global dominance to maximize the long-term benefits in the case of the right choice.

The tenth trend is the growing influence of demographic factors on the ability to gain political and economic benefits from involvement in globalization: economy with the largest population is able to capture a leading position in the world (an example of China). This factor will adversely affect the possibilities of the Eurasian Union in the world arena, because the current demographic resources of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan do not exceed 168 million people. This is almost two times less than the USA population, eight times less than population of China, almost seven times less than population of India. In the long term, exactly the small population figure is the most vulnerable line of the influence of the Eurasian Union on global economy and politics. This factor explains the need to attract Ukraine to the Eurasian integration: its main strategic resource for the Eurasian Union is its 46 million citizens.