By Kirill Yevdokimov
Experts believe that the global economy is shifting to a stage of slow yet stable growth. However, the trend will not be evenly spread, with developing states, as viewed by the West, becoming a driving force for economic revival. This year, such nations are likely to provide half of all global economic growth.
Paying for surfeit
The contrast between developed states and those with developing or transitory economies is huge. WB expert Hans Timmer speaks of ‘two worlds’; one witnesses a struggle against the consequences of the crisis and previous surfeit, while the other has already overcome the negative consequences. This year, China and India could become leaders of global economic growth, in addition to BRIC partners Russia and Brazil.
Within the CIS, Belarus and Uzbekistan lead steadily. According to WB predictions, this trend should continue, with a high pace of economic growth seen throughout 2011, reaching 6 and 7.3 percent respectively.
Offer and demand
“This is a classical forecast, based on a range of factors,” notes economist Leonid Zaiko. “The trend is evident, although it features a certain degree of relativity (on the basis of $1,000 per capita GDP, it’s easier to see ten percent growth, in comparison to $45,000 GDP). In the present situation of global development, those countries lead which see high dynamics of industrial development. In Belarus, just 30 percent of GDP originates from the sphere of services; however, we boast a large share of farming, so we ‘fit’ the concept. In Uzbekistan, industrialisation is the major aim of the state, with the country planning to build about 400 new enterprises over the coming five years.”
“Those countries which have suffered less from the global crisis are coming to the fore,” says Olga Kirvel, a candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the International Economic Relations Department of the Belarusian State University. “The reviving global economy requires more energy resources. Taking into consideration the global rise in oil prices, exporters of raw materials — such as Russia and Kazakhstan — see good prospects. Don’t forget that these are our partners within the Customs Union and the Single Economic Space. The restoration of demand on their and others’ markets will favourably influence the growth of the Belarusian economy. We depend on exports so, if Russia, China and the EU grow, it will be to our favour.”
Short-term, state debts in Europe, alongside inequality in currency exchange rates, could hamper economic revival. There is also the possibility that food will become less accessible, with underdeveloped regions facing increased poverty as food prices grow. However, this could be another chance for Belarus to raise exports.