Trajectory of confident growth

In Q1 2025, the Belarusian economy performed above forecast in a number of indicators

The Eurasian Development Bank has recently published a macroeconomic review analysing the development of the Belarusian economy. Experts concluded that it is maintaining high growth rates. Strong dynamics were noted in manufacturing, construction and trade, while GDP for the first quarter increased by 3.1 percent. Growth is supported by sectors oriented towards domestic consumption: retail turnover rose by 10.8 percent, and catering turnover — by 5.5 percent. The increase in manufacturing was 2.1 percent. Investment activity grew by 18.3 percent in January — March of this year, largely facilitated by an increase in equipment purchases of 26.2 percent.

Ivan Yarivanovich


TIBO International ICT Forum in Minsk                            Yegor Yermalitskiy 

Clear benchmark

In October 2024, President Aleksandr Lukashenko signed decrees No. 384 and No. 385, approving the most important forecast parameters for the country’s development and the monetary policy targets for 2025. The documents maintain the economic policy focus on ensuring economic stability and improving the well-being of the population. Thus, an increase in gross domestic product is projected to reach 4.1 percent, driven by three interconnected programmes: production, export, and investment.
Exports of goods and services are expected to grow by 5.4 percent. Investment in the economy is expected to rise by 7.8 percent. Successful implementation of production and investment plans will ensure growth in real disposable income of the population. The policy of curbing prices will continue. To this end, the National Bank and the Government are set a target of limiting inflation to a level not exceeding five percent.
The results of work in the first quarter of this year indicate that all the prerequisites are in place to reach the set benchmark. For a number of indicators, the economy performed at rates above forecast. The drivers of growth were construction, manufacturing, information and communications, and trade. Acceleration is also observed in agriculture.
Output increased at a rate of 101.7 percent. Importantly, retail trade turnover for January — March augmented by 10.8 percent, due to the outstripping growth of real household income. In January — March, 929.2 thousand square metres of housing were commissioned — 118 percent compared to the same period last year, which ensured high rates in the construction sector, according to the National Statistical Committee. Furthermore, the consistent performance of the economy made it possible to ensure an average salary of over Br2,420 in January — February 2025, and an average old-age pension of more than Br890.

Industrial driver

The quarter saw a significant increase in investment in fixed capital — up 18.3 percent. Enterprises are continuing to actively invest in their technological development and modernisation as spending on the acquisition of machinery and equipment elevated by more than a quarter. Overall, the enterprises of the Industry Ministry performed positively in the first quarter of 2025 and demonstrated further growth in production and a strengthening of their position in the domestic and foreign markets. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of the industrial sector was in line with the Government’s plans. Ambitious tasks lie ahead, as noted by the Industry Minister, Aleksandr Yefimov, “It is necessary to give impetus to the development of key areas in manufacturing. The goal is to, by 2030 at the latest, keep pace with global trends, and that means the introduction of unmanned technologies, artificial intelligence, automation of technological processes, and the creation of industrial robots.”
In Belarus, considerable attention is paid to the balanced development of regions. The President’s initiative One District — One Project continues to be implemented in the country. This is aimed at ensuring that the standard of living is equal in both urban and rural areas. Therefore, it is imperative to develop the economy.
Thus, in the first quarter of this year, the implementation of eight investment projects was completed with the support of the Development Bank.
“Six infrastructure facilities and two new production facilities have appeared in four regions of the country, creating approximately 100 jobs. Notably, during the period of use of the bank’s credit resources, the new production facilities will generate, on average, approximately Br16 of revenue from one borrowed rouble. As practice shows, investment in development today means stability and quality of life tomorrow,” stressed Inna Starovoitova, Deputy Chairperson of the Board of the Development Bank.

  

 Minsk Tractor Works      Yegor Yermalitskiy                                 ALMI supermarket      Aleksandr Kulevsky

EXPERT COMMENT

Denis Karas, Deputy Chairman of the Standing Committee on Economic Policy at the House of Representatives,
“Our economic drivers have traditionally been construction, industry, and trade. All this indicates that we are moving in the right direction. We have developed and adopted new mechanisms in the country to support promising initiatives. Conditions have been created for successful investment and development — both for enterprises and for regions as a whole. The range of goods produced is constantly expanding. This allows us to be more competitive. At the same time, we produce high-quality products at affordable prices. And there is demand for them both in the domestic and foreign markets. This is also another factor contributing to economic growth. Again, enterprises continue to actively invest in technological upgrades. Co-operation with friendly countries is having a positive effect. All of this together ensures the growth of our citizens’ prosperity. Consequently, salary levels are rising. The private sector is also actively developing. Successful dialogue between the state and business is yielding results, too.”

By Vladislav Sychevich