The Economist: one of US most important allies will become its headache
The greatest threat to the West is not the East, led by China, but the global South, where India plays the most important role as an ally of America – as stated by political scientist Ian Bremmer in his article for The Economist, RIA Novosti reports
He noted that, despite the dominant position in the world about the coming conflict between the United States and China, there will be no cold war between them.
“That is because their 21st-century interdependence will not be undone by 20th-century threats,” the author believes.
According to him, despite trust between Washington and Beijing being in short supply, their allies will not be ready to take part in a global confrontation, since their well-being depends on it.
“Severe destabilisation of the Celestial Empire could lead to mutual economic destruction,” Bremmer pointed out.
He recalled that the capitals of the two powers are the largest trade and economic partners for each other, which helps them stay ‘in the same boat’. The political scientist believes that there is a more serious threat in the South: India.
“Such states are carried with the flow, and in the next decade they can become a destination for millions of migrants and refugees,” the publicist warned.
Supply chain disruptions, inflation, economic slowdowns and reduced remittances threaten to plunge developing countries into a debt crisis over the next decade, Bremmer said.
He also noted that the southern countries are worse prepared for climate change. Global warming will hurt Africa, the Middle East and Central America the most.
The West will less enthusiastically seek to resolve conflicts and crises in Afghanistan, Yemen and other states, and will also cut aid through the IMF and other international institutions. In response, poor countries may unite to ask for more support, or exacerbate general political instability, which may increase migration flows to the West.
“In this unstable environment, India will take the place of the leader of the global South,” the expert predicted.
The author believes that the West should concentrate its efforts and unite to solve problems. China can help achieve this goal.
