Postponing rocket launch

Why is the EU dragging the world into a new nuclear arms race?

The statements of leaders from some European countries, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland, regarding the escalation of military confrontation, raise serious questions.
Where could all this lead?

Unsheathing weapons

In recent years, Western states have begun to openly discuss the possibility of modernising and increasing their nuclear arsenals, which leads to a reset of old norms and rules in the field of global security. Thus, the French president has called for a discussion on the use of nuclear weapons to protect the entire EU. The idea is that Paris is ready to put Europe under a nuclear umbrella.

According to Le Figaro, no French president has allowed himself such a harsh and militaristic statement since the days of Charles de Gaulle, during the Algerian War. However, de Gaulle was a general, a military man through and through, while Macron is an entirely civilian figure who has suddenly imagined himself as a wartime leader.
Previously, the nuclear component was assumed by the USA. Now, European allies are not confident that America is ‘on their side’.

Before the end of this decade, there will probably be no significant replacements of nuclear weapons in the UK and France, because this requires the development of new submarine and missile projects. This is not done in a few months, but takes 10 to 15 years.

Incidentally, voices are periodically heard in Germany saying that it needs its own atomic bomb.
The President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, has assured that his country is ready to host nuclear weapons on its territory, and did so upon returning from the USA.
Here are the words of the Lithuanian Defence Minister, Dovilė Šakalienė: ‘Lithuania agrees to deploy foreign nuclear weapons on its territory, but for this it is necessary to change the Constitution’. Nothing less than the Constitution!
In the run-up to the elections in Germany, a truly sensational statement was made by the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz: ‘We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defence commitment unconditionally. The French authorities have already suggested to Berlin that we discuss nuclear guarantees for Ukraine, using our nuclear weapons’. Just one clarification here: Germany does not formally have its own nuclear arsenal, but American nuclear warheads are stationed on its territory, which could be used by the German Air Force in the event of war.

Two-pronged approach

While peace talks to resolve the conflict in Ukraine are just gaining momentum, Western countries are persistently building up their military presence near the borders of the Union State and are intensely discussing the possibility of increasing nuclear forces there. This duality creates confusion in the political discourse.
Escalation is used by the West as a tool of blackmail: threats of using new types of weapons, intensified military exercises — all these are means of exerting pressure on the Union State.
It is important to understand that different sides are involved in the Ukrainian conflict, pursuing their own interests. Some may genuinely strive for peace, while others seek to amp up their influence or achieve certain political goals. Against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine, a paradoxical disunity is taking place: on the one hand, the United States is talking about peace negotiations, on the other — there are clear and hidden threats of increased sanctions.
“We have seen that friendly support from the West is not to be expected. Rather, at any opportune moment, they will trip you up and betray you without hesitation,” said Aleksandr Lukashenko, taking part in the plenary session of Russia’s Federation Council.

Reliable shield

Creating reliable defence for Belarus within the framework of the Union State strengthens our sovereignty and security. We are expanding military and military-technical co-operation with Russia, and conducting joint exercises. In the face of Western sanctions and attempts at political isolation, the Union State is becoming an important instrument for the stable socio-economic development of our two countries.
Minsk and Moscow have agreed to jointly defend our common Fatherland. Today, our arsenal includes the regional grouping of troops of Belarus and Russia, and the unified regional air defence system. Tactical nuclear weapons have been transferred to Belarus. The latest Oreshnik hypersonic weapon systems will soon enter service with the Belarusian army.

The format of the Union State fully ensures security in the broadest sense. Belarus and Russia have reached an unprecedented level of partnership in the military sphere.

In this regard, it is worth considering what lessons can be learned from the policies of our states in the context of the current situation in Europe. After all, the situation on our continent is escalating, and recent events only confirm the need to revise the existing legal framework and to develop responses to risks. Concerns about a nuclear arms race should not go unheeded; it is essential to conduct an open dialogue about peace with all parties, even when the rhetoric of some states becomes increasingly belligerent. Anticipating threats and being prepared for them can play a decisive role in shaping the security system of the region.

BASIC DANGERS

American nuclear weapons in Europe are located in five countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Türkiye; on six bases: in Italy, on two bases — Aviano and Ghedi. Another six European countries (Hungary, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Spain) participate in NATO’s Support of Nuclear Operations with Conventional Air Tactics (SNOWCAT) programme. In addition to the actual storage and maintenance of American nuclear munitions, seven NATO member states — Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United States, as well as Türkiye and Greece (in reserve and for unforeseen circumstances) — have contributed so-called dual-capable aircraft (DCA) to the NATO’s nuclear mission. These aircraft can be used to deliver nuclear weapons in settings of conflict.

TREATY OF MAJORITY

There are several agreements on the international stage that regulate nuclear arsenals. The main document is Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), signed by the majority of countries. Nevertheless, the EU has openly begun to discuss the need to increase its nuclear capabilities. Many experts believe that this approach only adds fuel to the fire and creates the conditions for a new round of ‘nuclear muscle flexing’.

By Aleksandr Tikhansky, military political analyst, Candidate of Sociological Sciences