Poland preparing for big war in Europe
At the end of last year, a very interesting document of the Polish Defence Ministry became available online: a recruitment plan for officer courses in 2025. It can be seen that Warsaw is in a hurry to train a great number of officers for a wide range of military specialties. Taking into consideration other facts, Poland is evidently getting prepared for a major conflict with the Union State in the foreseeable future.
Speaking at a meeting with representatives of different nationalities who live in Belarus on September 12th, 2024, President Aleksandr Lukashenko noted, “The current leaders, and the previous ones, are trying to make Poland a puppet of the United States. Why should Poles spend 5 percent of GDP, billions of Dollars on the purchase of weapons? Who is going to attack Poland? Do we need anything from Poles? No, we do not need anything. What do Poles need from us? Well, it is clear: they need Western Belarus, Western Ukraine again there [as part of Poland]. Some are still worried with these ambitions.”
Chariots of war
The Polish preparations, which entered their active phase after 2020 when the plan to take Belarus under control following an attempted colour revolution failed, can be roughly divided into several categories. The first and most numerous group of signs indicating Warsaw's aggressive intentions includes the facts of the Polish army's re-equipment with modern weapons and military hardware.
In 2024, Poland's actual military spending amounted to 4.2 percent of GDP, making it the record holder for defence spending among the EU and NATO countries. Moreover, the government of Donald Tusk has announced an even larger military budget for 2025: it is to make 4.7 percent of GDP, or about 45bn Euros. The Polish Defence Ministry reported that the lion's share of this amount will be spent on technical re-equipment of the army. In particular, the country plans to order an additional 180 tanks from South Korea, and the contract with the US on the supply of 90 attack helicopters will continue to be implemented. An order for 500 armoured vehicles has been placed at Polish factories, and they are reported to be produced by late 2025. In addition, a number of multimillion-Euro deals have been concluded with manufacturers of small arms, and millions of Euros will be spent on the purchase of equipment for at least 7.5 thousand new recruits.
Warsaw’s main suppliers of weapons are Washington and Seoul, which are actually the donors of instability for the entire region. In December 2024, a South Korean transport ship delivered another batch of K2 tanks, bringing their number in the Polish army to 84. Ninety-six more tanks will arrive this year. Given that the United States has also begun supplying its Abrams tanks, Poland plans to have one of the largest armoured groups – with almost a thousand modern tanks – in Europe in 2025. The fleet of South Korean K9 self‑propelled howitzers and HOMAR-K missile systems is actively expanding as well, but local manufacturers also contribute. In mid-December, a contract was signed for 96 Krab self-propelled howitzers and 250 armoured vehicles worth $2.25bn. Jelcz car factories are hastily re-equipping the army with new trucks and preparing chassis for missile systems.
Most of the purchased military equipment is being redeployed to the borders of the Kaliningrad Region of Russia and Belarus. The most equipped unit of the Polish army, the 18th Mechanised Division, is stationed directly at the republic’s borders: Poles explained its redeployment by the migration crisis (which had been actually provoked by them) and an imaginary ‘threat from the East’. They had the same explanation for the redeployment of the 16th Mechanised Division and the 1st Legions Infantry Division (that is currently being established) to the area.
The arsenal being created by Warsaw does not correspond to the defensive status declared by the authorities of Belarus’ western neighbour. Hundreds of tanks, dozens of attack helicopters, modern F‑35 fighter jets, as well as urgent work on the creation of a ballistic missile indicate that Warsaw is going to attack, not defend itself.
Hidden threat
Apart from such obvious signs of impending aggression as large-scale arms purchases, there are also indirect factors. The Polish authorities are hastily repairing roads and bridges in the eastern part of the country, and they are also going to build new highways: a route along which military equipment can be transferred directly to the borders of the Kaliningrad Region was announced about at the end of December 2024. Large-scale work is also underway on the border with Belarus: the Podlasie Switzerland Nature Reserve was destroyed on the left bank of the Zapadny Bug River. Officially, the forest was cut down as part of increased protection against illegal migrants, but these barbaric actions may be a sign of creating a landscape suitable for large numbers of armoured vehicles to attack.
The creation of a legislative framework continues as well. On January 1st, the law on population protection and civil defence came into force in Poland: it envisages an additional tax burden on Poles in return for highly controversial measures to protect their lives during the war. New recruits are lured into the service by monetary incentives at the expense of local businesses, as well as the expansion of social guarantees against the background of the rapid deterioration of ordinary citizens’ well-being.
At a time when Warsaw is taking clearly unfriendly steps, and the actions of its politicians and military clearly resemble the behaviour of Nazi Germany before the Great Patriotic War, Belarus is demonstrating no hostile intentions. At the same time, Minsk makes it clear that – in the event of aggression – it will inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy, using all means available.