Posted: 07.06.2023 11:02:00

Not by number, but by skill

Why military security in the modern world comes to the fore and what is said about this aspect in the National Security Concept project


A couple of weeks ago, the former Deputy Minister of National Defence of Poland, Waldemar Skrzypczak, burst out with a number of revelations about Warsaw’s plans for Minsk on the air of the Polsat TV channel. Of course, one could write off what was said to the fact that the retired general overheated in the sun, but the current May turned out to be not too hot. Therefore, the statements of the former high-ranking military man should be considered both without raising unnecessary alarm and without undue frivolity. And Skrzypczak gave the following: allegedly, an armed coup is being prepared in Belarus, and Poland is going to support it with military force. “We are preparing for an uprising in Belarus, because it will happen,” the ex-general declared without hesitation, having clearly tried on the laurels of the bandit Pilsudski.

The President of Belarus,
Aleksandr Lukashenko,

“We must clearly and openly declare our priorities, we must show the world the transparency of our policy, the reliability of Belarus as a responsible partner. But our partners must also know that Belarusian peacefulness is not synonymous to willingness to sacrifice. As I have said more than once, in the event of any aggression, the response will be fast, tough and adequate.”

During the Security Council meeting
on February 20th, 2023

Diplomatic masks are off

Military analyst with the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research (BISR) Andrei Chernobai is sure that the need to develop a new draft of the Concept is connected to a greater extent with changes in security in the military sphere, “In the military sphere, everything has changed a lot over the past 20–30 years. Risks and challenges have become more significant. And the brightest thing is a special military operation in Ukraine, which threatens to go beyond the borders of Ukraine. Belarus is also being drawn into the conflict...”

Pavel Bogush

The militarisation of the Eastern European region is another important aspect. The analyst recalls that Poland has set itself the task of having the strongest armed forces in Europe, “Military spending has been increased, and the process of purchasing weapons and military equipment is underway. And they buy it not only in the United States, Germany, but also in South Korea. We are talking about hundreds and thousands of pieces of equipment. But why does Poland need 500 HIMARS launchers?
 There is no such need for the armed forces of Poland, for the five divisions that it forms.”
Andrei Chernobai assumes that a base for storing weapons will be located in our neighbouring country in order to transfer them to the armed forces of other countries if necessary. For example, the United States, which has already opened a permanent military base in Powidze in Poland. He also recalls that Lithuania recently announced its intention to form a full-fledged NATO division. 

From AI to the exploration of near space

The methods of conducting military conflicts are constantly being improved, the analyst notes. He cites hypersonic weapons as an example, “America is trying very hard, but so far it is lagging behind Russia and China in this matter. But another year or two — and it will still reach this level. 
Another important point is the exploration of outer space. Including the so-called near space, or near-Earth orbit. The United States and France are trying to actively use this space.”


Andrei Chernobai also draws attention to the new challenge that the country is facing — the training of armed formations from among the citizens of Belarus in Ukraine and Poland, “Nobody hides that they are being prepared in the future after Ukraine for operations on the territory of our country. This is a new challenge that we are facing and should be taken very seriously.”

Whether the world needs peace

As long as the basic needs of hundreds of millions of people around the world remain unmet, the planet continues to militarise. Global military spending hit a record $2.24 trillion in 2022, according to new data released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This is 3.7 percent more than in 2021, including the sharpest increase among European countries since the end of the Cold War more than 30 years ago. The United States spends the most on military spending in the world. As the Massachusetts National Priorities Project researchers found, for every dollar given to the United States on diplomacy and humanitarian aid, there are $16 spent on the armed forces and war.  

The main national interests in the military aspect are:

ensuring military security and armed protection of Belarus in any conditions of the military-political situation;
development and strengthening of collective security with allied states for Belarus;
formation of a new, stable architecture of international security, restoration of mutual trust and transparency of international relations.

The main internal sources of military threats are:

terrorist activities of criminal organisations and illegal armed formations on the territory of Belarus, pursuing the goals of destabilising public order and provoking an internal armed conflict;
weakening of a sense of patriotism, the readiness of citizens of Belarus for the armed defence of the Fatherland in society;
reducing the ability of the structural components of the military organisation of the state to solve the problems of peacetime and wartime as a result of criminal actions (inaction) of individual citizens of Belarus (treason to the state, sabotage, etc.);
dissemination in the Belarusian society of the ideas of civil confrontation, leading to an armed rebellion;
inability to provide at the level of defence sufficiency the needs of the military organisation of the state in armaments, military and special equipment, stocks of materiel.

The main external sources of military threats are:

armed provocations from the territory of foreign states on the state border and in its border area;
pursuance by states, interstate military-political associations of a hostile military policy towards our country, their demonstration of their desire to resolve existing contradictions through the use of military force;
calls for the use of military force or financing of preparations for its use against Belarus by international organisations (including non-governmental ones), radical religious movements, anti-Belarusian centres abroad;
creation of non-state armed formations abroad to carry out military activities on the territory 
of Belarus;
reducing the potential and capabilities of interstate military-political associations with the participation of Belarus to ensure collective security;
the emergence and escalation of hotbeds of armed conflicts in the territories of states adjacent to Belarus, as well as states that are members of military-political associations with the participation of our country;
the destruction of the international architecture of military security, the pursuit of expansion policies by military-political alliances that do not include Belarus in order to disrupt the existing strategic balance of power, the involvement of third states in their sphere of influence without granting them membership, including for waging agent’s wars (proxy wars);
the desire of individual states, including those in the European region, to possess or deploy on their territory weapons of mass destruction, long-range strategic weapons in non-nuclear design, the dissemination of their components and production technologies;
the unleashing of an arms race and the militarisation of the states adjacent to Belarus, leading to the strengthening of their strike and offensive capabilities.

Aleksei Bibikov

Aleksandr Volfovich,
State Secretary of the 
Belarusian Security Council,

“In order to ensure peace and security, it is necessary first of all to maintain the combat readiness of all forces and means of the national security system, all structures of the state’s military organisation. The defence of the country has a nationwide character in Belarus. Territorial defence is an important component of military security.”


Vilnius will host a NATO summit from July 11th to July 12th. Germany will deploy the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system in Lithuania to ensure its security. As analyst Andrei Chernobai said, new NATO plans for the Baltic region will be considered during the summit, “The United States and certain European states are talking about the need to completely abandon the Russia-NATO Founding Act of 1997, which means lifting restrictions on the permanent deployment of permanent troops in Eastern Europe. This is a serious risk.”
By Svetlana Isaenok