More provocations with airspace violation are likely
Aleksei Avdonin, an analyst with the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research, commented on the recent incident with the violation of Belarus’ airspace by a Latvian plane in his talk with Alfa Radio
On February 8th, Belarusian border guards registered a violation of Belarus’ air border. An AN-2 light aircraft flew 300m deep into the Belarusian territory and, after flying around the Urbana border checkpoint, returned to Latvia.
As Alfa Radio host, Polina Konoga, noted that was not the first case of the kind: earlier, a Ukrainian drone violated the Belarusian airspace. “Is this another provocation, or is it a test of strength? What is going on?" she asked the expert.
“We see that they [the West] are acting in a consistent manner. These are not incidental border violations caused by their mapping mistake. They all know perfectly well the air and land borders. Of course – when committing such actions (as they see, they are coming from different sides: Poland, the Baltic States, and Ukraine) – these are purposeful. Their actions are co-ordinated by the NATO command and are primarily aimed at registering the work of all our air defence systems,” Mr. Avdonin explained.
The expert reminded that ‘such tactics were used by the collective West more than once while they were planning military operations against a particular country’. “This was observed in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. Similarly, if to look back to the Great Patriotic War events and the eve of its beginning in May 1941, the so-called flights of German civil aviation were recorded through the whole territory of Belarus up to Smolensk. That was how they were monitoring whether the anti-aircraft guns were operational or not. Clearly, when such aircraft are flying over, special stations are simultaneously operating on the territory of the neighbouring states to actually register when our air defence systems and radar stations start working. They register these points and understand that – if a certain operation is launched – then these points must first be destroyed with the help of NATO,” he added.
Mr. Avdonin stressed, “Such tactics are typical [for the North Atlantic Alliance]. Accordingly, when discussing this topic, we should in no case view these flights as incidental. All experts understand that our territory is being scanned, and it brings no good. Clearly, we do not react to these provocations, do not send our aviation forces and do not shoot down these aircraft.”
The expert considers ‘the frequency of such provocations is likely to increase’. “In particular, we will observe them from different sides: from the north, west and south,” he said, assuming that provocations would become widespread, while aircraft of the neighbouring states would make attempt to penetrate even deeper into our territory.
"We must understand that the grouping that is being formed in Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic States is being strengthened – including by various combat unmanned aerial vehicles that are now conditionally flying as reconnaissance but can tomorrow can carry weapons on board and pose a threat to all of us. It is necessary to treat this very carefully and demand explanations from the diplomatic missions of these countries (from the territory of which provocations are committed),” Mr. Avdonin concluded.
