Posted: 27.01.2023 14:37:00

Kovalev: global economic downturn will affect everyone

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that global GDP will increase by 2.7 percent this year after rising by 3.2 percent in 2022, but the global economic downturn will affect everyone – as noted by Mikhail Kovalev, PhD in Physico-Mathematical Science, Professor of the Department of Analytical Economics and Econometrics of the Economics Faculty at the Belarusian State University

“Over the past year, the IMF and other international organisations have revised and worsened forecasts for global economic growth in 2023. According to the latest data, this is 2.5-3 percent of world GDP – very little compared to pre-COVID times. Moreover, this growth will be determined by the Asian economies (because of extremely low forecasts – 1-2 percent for the EU and the USA – for the next five years). Actually, one can agree with the slowdown in world economic growth, since a recession in the European Union will reduce the demand for Chinese goods, which are sold there annually worth $520bn. Consequently, this fact will have a negative impact on China as well. However, economic growth in China will still recover (at the level of 4-5 percent). This is about 1 percent higher than in other fast-growing Asian countries: Vietnam, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and others. Their rise will literally push the world economy forward, so there will be a place to sell Belarusian goods.”