Posted:
05.12.2024 17:58:00
Italian expert: Germany is turning into ‘sick man of Europe’
The US’ new aggressive tariff policy, if implemented, will have an impact on markets all over the world, said Professor Antonio Fallico, the President of Conoscere Eurasia Association, at the 17th Verona Eurasian Economic Forum in Ras Al Khaimah (UAE)
![]()
“We should expect the onset of what I have already called ‘regional globalisation’ years ago. That means formation of regional or mega-regional markets with globalist economic liberalisation taking place inside them. At the same time, they will remain protected from the outside by various tariffs and policy tools. Surprisingly enough, the Communist China remains the leading proponent of the classic liberal globalisation, with gradually opening markets, lower tariffs, unified business rules and conditions in the spirit of the World Trade Organisation. The reason is obvious: an environment like that means economic success for the Chinese,” said the expert.
According to Professor Fallico, we can expect the United States to close off its market to some extent for goods from China and Asia. The US is now pressuring its European partners to block Chinese goods’ access to their market as well, or limit their trade with China.
“We have already witnessed the first step in that direction with the European Commission introducing 35.3 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs that are clearly outright winners at the European markets when it comes to the cost/benefit ratio. Beijing countered with reciprocal 30.6 percent tariffs on some EU products (albeit incomparable in their cost and the quantities they are imported in): wines and cheeses. Enormous trade amounts are at stake here. Let me remind you, that in 2023, the EU imported goods worth 514.4 billion Euros from China and exported 223.5 billion. In the same year, the US imports from China totalled up to $473.2 billion, exports – to $147.8 billion,” he explained.
![]()
“American and European markets will be partly closed off to inexpensive goods from Asia. What will be the consequences for other ASEAN countries? The Western market share China currently holds will partly go to other Asian countries. Where will the cheapish Chinese products flow? To Asia, taking the market share from local producers. After locking off the Chinese goods, Europe will become the main foreign market for the re-industrialised United States, thanks, among other things, to some European companies that will have relocated their production facilities there. But the goods from America are more expensive than those from China. Can they occupy the Chinese market share in Europe? Well, why not? They were able to do that to the Russian gas after 50 years of trying in vain. Turns out, making some political decisions and blowing up the undersea pipelines (everyone would say later they have no capabilites for a proper investigation) was all it takes,” continued Mr. Fallico.
He reminded that Europe has almost stopped Russian natural gas imports, buying more expensive US-supplied LNG instead and condemning their effective and competitive industrial model to extinction: demand for and consumption of natural gas are falling, along with the prices that have reached astronomic heights in the first months after that pivot.
“Europe is watching its own de-industrialisation and migration of its industry to the United States and China passively. Look at the German statistics: it’s turning from the main driver of the European economy into the ‘sick man of Europe'. Ask the German car manufacturers what they think of Volkswagen closing 3 out of its 10 factories in Germany… Ask those who work in chemistry, metallurgy, machine engineering and other industries…" lamented Mr. Fallico.
According to Professor Fallico, we can expect the United States to close off its market to some extent for goods from China and Asia. The US is now pressuring its European partners to block Chinese goods’ access to their market as well, or limit their trade with China.
“We have already witnessed the first step in that direction with the European Commission introducing 35.3 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs that are clearly outright winners at the European markets when it comes to the cost/benefit ratio. Beijing countered with reciprocal 30.6 percent tariffs on some EU products (albeit incomparable in their cost and the quantities they are imported in): wines and cheeses. Enormous trade amounts are at stake here. Let me remind you, that in 2023, the EU imported goods worth 514.4 billion Euros from China and exported 223.5 billion. In the same year, the US imports from China totalled up to $473.2 billion, exports – to $147.8 billion,” he explained.
What may be the global market configuration if those expectations come true?
He reminded that Europe has almost stopped Russian natural gas imports, buying more expensive US-supplied LNG instead and condemning their effective and competitive industrial model to extinction: demand for and consumption of natural gas are falling, along with the prices that have reached astronomic heights in the first months after that pivot.
“Europe is watching its own de-industrialisation and migration of its industry to the United States and China passively. Look at the German statistics: it’s turning from the main driver of the European economy into the ‘sick man of Europe'. Ask the German car manufacturers what they think of Volkswagen closing 3 out of its 10 factories in Germany… Ask those who work in chemistry, metallurgy, machine engineering and other industries…" lamented Mr. Fallico.
