Harvest of income

The success of agriculture determines the conditions for the stable development of society as a whole

Food security remains a key item on the agenda for all countries worldwide. This is due to the fact that agriculture is extremely vulnerable to various natural and man-made shocks. All these factors, along with growing levels of inequality, reduce the ability of states to ensure citizens’ access to food. How are these problems being solved?

Grain abundance

According to the FAO forecast, a record volume of grain production is expected in the world this year, estimated at 2 billion 961 million tonnes, which is 3.5 percent higher than last year. This is primarily due to a significant increase in maize production in the USA, Brazil and Mexico. At the same time, in the countries of the European Union, drought conditions and higher than average temperatures are leading to a decrease in cereal yields.

The projected global grain consumption is now 2 billion 922 million tonnes, which is practically in line with production volumes and does not allow for the formation of a reserve food fund in case of unforeseen circumstances.

In addition, an increase in maize consumption for feed purposes is expected in the main producing countries — Brazil and the United States. This indicates the potential for growth in market demand and, as a result, the need to ramp up grain production through intensive methods.

Demand is on the rise

Regarding rice, its global production in 2025–2026 could grow by one percent, reaching a new peak of 555.5 million tonnes. At the same time, against a backdrop of reduced crop acreage and lower yields due to heavy rains, a decrease in its harvest volume is noted in Nepal. This situation is also characteristic of the USA, due to spring floods in the south of the country and a reduction in crop acreage due to decreased profitability. However, growth is projected in Indonesia, where, due to favourable price conditions, crop acreage has reached its highest value in the last seven years. Bangladesh, Brazil, China and India are also expected to step up production.
Demand from retail and wholesale buyers is also increasing for oilseeds. This year, we will receive almost 690 million tonnes of them globally. Against the background of declining soybean production in India, and sunflower in Ukraine and the European Union, the balance is achieved through increased rapeseed production in Canada, soybeans in Russia, and sunflower in Russia and Kazakhstan.

High ratings

As practice shows, in an unstable food situation, only those countries that based their economies primarily on the efficient use of available potential and domestic resources and proved more resistant to external challenges will be able to withstand it.

Thus, national interests remain a priority of economic development for any state.
In this regard, Belarus is a good example of the effective implementation of state agricultural policy. The country makes a significant contribution to solving global food security not only as a major producer that provides its population with domestically grown produce, but also as an exporter.
According to the Sustainable Development Goals Index, last year our country ranked 30th out of 166 states and is one of the leaders in the region.
These results have been achieved thanks to serious attention to agriculture from the President of our country. Despite the abnormal spring and summer weather conditions, the harvesting campaign in Belarus is proceeding quite successfully. The gross grain harvest in the country (including rapeseed) has already exceeded nine million tonnes. The work of farmers continues — in particular, vegetables are being harvested. The harvest is generally good.

Export basis

Now, the main task for the food industry is to process the harvested crop, ensuring not a single grain is lost, and most importantly — to supply tasty and diverse products to shop counters. Our customer is the ultimate expert.

At the same time, domestic organisations are working to diversify export deliveries, both in terms of product range and sales markets. In 2024, exports amounted to $8.4bn, and this year promise to be no less profitable.

Belarusian exporters are paying close attention to conducting marketing research, making more active use of electronic trading platforms and digital technologies, as well as expanding their presence through their own commodity distribution network. The experience of our exporters and the existing competitive advantages provide a solid basis for ensuring positive results and the image of our country on the world stage.
Currently, the level of agricultural development largely determines the conditions for the stable functioning of the entire economic system, which, in turn, has a direct impact on the formation of present-day and future generations.

WHEAT RECORDS

According to calculations by international experts, global wheat production will reach 804.9 million tonnes this year, almost 6.9 million tonnes higher than last year’s figure. This is despite a slight decrease in the yield of this crop in mainland China due to unfavourable weather conditions and a larger than previously expected reduction in crop acreage in Argentina.
Experts estimate that global wheat consumption in the 2025–2026 season could reach a record 803.5 million tonnes, which is 8.1 million tonnes higher than in the previous season. Demand for this crop for feed purposes is noted in China, the EU and Thailand.


By Natalya Kireenko, Doctor of Economics, Professor