Expert: some countries in Africa and Middle East may again get into a hungry trap
The open ‘grain corridor’ in the Black Sea has reduced speculative market sentiment, but this, unfortunately, has not become a radical solution to the problems for the poorest countries. Wheat prices on the world market have stabilised, but the cost of bread in many African and Middle Eastern countries has not decreased. Moreover, in the current situation, the decline in agricultural production in Ukraine – which is one of the largest suppliers of grain to the world market – is inevitable. An expert from the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, Aleksei Avdonin, commented on the issue.
“This will happen for the following reasons: reduction of acreage due to fighting and mining of territories; declining liquidity of farmers due to export-related problems; reduced yields caused by a lack of fertilisers and technology violations; increased production costs as a result of growing prices for fuel and fertilisers. If the gloomy forecasts come true, then grain prices will jump again – and this will lead to another food collapse. However, its impact on countries will vary. Russia, China, the US, most of the EU countries and Belarus are relatively well insured against the crisis, having a high level of agricultural production and high purchasing power,” Mr. Avdonin said.
According to the expert, the states of Africa and the Middle East, especially Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen, may again find themselves in a hungry trap, since they are very dependent on grain imports, have limited stocks and very low purchasing power. Given the size of the population here, more than 1.7bn people may suffer in the event of a shortage of grain on the world market; as noted by the UN, the vast majority of them will be residents of Africa and Asia. “Moreover, if these countries completely exhaust their reserves in the event of a prolonged global shortage, then we will have to calculate not only those who suffer from hunger,” Mr. Avdonin added.
