Expert explains why grain prices are growing
Current disruptions in the global food chain indicate the approach of more serious problems, and forecasts of the kind are now often voiced by representatives of the UN, the World Bank and many other reputable organisations. Ukraine faces serious difficulties in its sowing campaign this year, and the issue of grain supplies is increasingly often discussed these days. Aleksei Avdonin, from the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, shared his views on the issue.
“Global problems in the world food market have been provoked by a sharp rise in prices for relatively cheap wheat and other cereals from Ukraine and Russia. These countries are among the largest grain exporters, and their combined share in world exports of wheat averages 27 percent, barley — 23 percent, and corn – 15 percent. Most of these volumes are exported to developing countries in Africa and the Middle East. The stoppage of supplies from Ukraine and Russia last spring and summer caused prices for wheat and other grains to jump sharply. Most of that growth was openly speculative, since after the issue of Ukrainian ports was resolved, prices for wheat and other crops almost immediately fell to the level of January-February 2022,” the expert said.
Mr. Avdonin added that, at their peak, world wheat prices jumped by more than 63 percent compared to the end of last year, corn — by 64 percent, soybeans — by 38 percent, and sunflower oil – by 36 percent. “Such fluctuations hit primarily the poorest countries that import grain from Ukraine and Russia, and the impoverished populations of Somalia, Egypt, Laos, Congo, Benin, Sudan, Senegal and Tanzania, as well as Algeria, Uzbekistan, Morocco and Togo, suffer the most. The situation was as critical as possible and could lead to destructive protests and a political crisis. It is worth remembering the jumps in food prices that provoked riots in developing countries and even coincided with the Arab Spring of 2011. The unrest in some states of North Africa and the Middle East led to the overthrow of several national regimes," he noted.
