Europe’s powder keg

What are the threats posed by the current escalation in the Baltic region?

In the last century, the Balkans were known as the powder keg of Europe: the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife in Sarajevo triggered the First World War, and at the end of the century, the region became an arena of fierce conflict in the ruins of Yugoslavia for over a decade. Today, the status of the main hotbed of tension on the continent is gradually shifting to the Baltics, where the number of provocations, often of unknown authorship, is growing exponentially.

Up the escalation spiral 

The situation is heating up along the entire eastern flank of NATO. A new stage of escalation occurred on the night of September 10th, when drones without warheads appeared in Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused Russia of the attack, but did not present any coherent evidence of Moscow’s guilt. The North Atlantic Alliance used the incident to transfer additional forces to the East. France was particularly prominent, sending aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons to Poland. 
Subsequently, unidentified drones allegedly appeared in Romania, and by the end of September, the Baltics became a real hotspot: UAVs of unclear origin are regularly reported off the coasts of Denmark, Norway and Sweden, and Estonia attempted to escalate the military hysteria to stratospheric levels by protesting the flight of Russian fighter jets to Kaliningrad. 
Since the beginning of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, the level of escalation in the Baltics has periodically increased, but then rolled back to its previous level.
Chronologically and according to the means used for provocations, this period can be divided into three parts. From September 2022 to the autumn of last year, it was mainly underwater infrastructure — cables and pipelines — that suffered. The second period began last November and was marked by an intensification of the struggle of Western countries against ships that, to one degree or another, were related to Russia. Several ships were arrested for a long time, but were eventually released due to lack of evidence of involvement in damage to underwater cables.
On a separate note, let us recall the pirate campaign launched by Estonians in April–May, the most famous victim of which was the Kiwala tanker under the flag of Djibouti, which spent two weeks with the robbers of Baltic Tortuga in ‘captivity’. The next foray of the Tallinn heirs of Blackbeard turned into a fiasco: the Gabonese Jaguar tanker managed to evade boarding attempts, and the Russian Su-35 fighter that came to its aid put an end to the confrontation.

Was there a drone?

By the end of September, the escalation had entered a new round, and its geography had expanded significantly. The reason for whipping up military hysteria has also changed — now the main bogeyman is unidentified drones that interfere with the operation of airports and circle near military bases. Since September 22nd, unidentified objects have appeared at night in Denmark, which is of most interest to unknown operators, as well as in Norway and Sweden. Drones have also been recorded in the airspace of Germany and Lithuania.
Although there is no evidence of Russian involvement in UAVs, the mechanism for fuelling Russophobic hysteria has been launched. The Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, announced that the country is in a state of ‘hybrid war’ and she expects further attacks. Yet, Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stressed that his department had no evidence of Russian involvement in the Danish drone incursion.

The situation with drones over the Baltics resembles a mass psychosis, which humanity has witnessed more than once in recent years.

At one point, the question arose as to whether the UAVs that frightened the Danes and Norwegians existed at all. Copenhagen AirTaxi stated that its plane was conducting a training flight at the same time and in the same place where the drones were allegedly detected on September 22nd — and no oddities were noticed. Anyway, this does not prevent local media from spreading fake news that the drones were launched either from tankers making ‘suspicious manoeuvres’, or even from a Russian warship that secretly approached the shores of the kingdom.

Setting the sea on fire 

European authorities, accusing Russia without evidence, are pursuing two goals. The first is to win over the master of the White House, for which it is necessary to demonstrate NATO’s vulnerability without the USA in the face of the alleged Russian threat.
Traditionally, the main hawks have been countries whose military potential and sovereignty are questionable — President of the Czech Republic Petr Pavel and Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovile Šakalienė called for the ‘violators’ to be shot down. They were joined by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. The reaction from across the ocean has been contradictory.

Given that Trump reacted to the first incidents rather unenthusiastically, it is possible that thoughts are brewing in the European corridors of power to stage something more grandiose. 

Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves stated that the threat from Russia would not be taken seriously until a ‘mass casualty event’ takes place on NATO soil. Sounds like an announcement of staging a new Gleiwitz incident? 
The second goal facing the warmongers is more prosaic. It is known that NATO is preparing to enter a major conflict in 3–5 years. By taking control of the Baltic Sea area, several tasks can be solved at once: cutting St Petersburg off from the sea, locking the Baltic Fleet in ports and exposing it to missile and drone strikes, and blockading Kaliningrad in preparation for an attack on the exclave. That is why exercises are ongoing in the region. The Swedish–Polish Gotland Sentry drill kicked off on September 22nd.
As part of achieving this goal, NATO’s eastern members are frantically changing laws, allegedly to more effectively counter the threat, but in reality — to give themselves a free hand to commit new provocations. Thus, Poland is preparing amendments to the law on the deployment of its troops abroad in order to allow the army to attack targets, in particular, over Ukraine, whereas Lithuania’s Seimas has authorised the military to shoot down drones not only in closed zones, but also in restricted airspace.
Another escalation in the Baltics is a bad prognostic sign. With each new provocation, the likelihood of an uncontrolled outbreak of aggression — which could easily spill over into a major war — increases. Western politicians, playing with fire, do not seem to realise the degree of risk.
Only balanced decisions and caution in their adoption can prevent a fire ready to erupt from the first spark. 

FACT

The Swedish island of Gotland is located 330km from Kaliningrad Region and is one of the most important locations in the Baltic Sea. Today, it is home to a garrison of 300 Swedish soldiers with 14 tanks and a variety of other equipment, including CV-90 IFVs. NATO forces regularly conduct exercises on the island: in the spring of this year, British paratroopers landed near the city of Visby, and American missilemen trained in the use of HIMARS and MLRS systems. In June, during the BALTOPS drills, military personnel from 16 countries practised landing from the sea, anti-aircraft and anti-submarine warfare.

LEGAL CASE

The reason for the situation with the alleged intrusion of Russian fighters into Estonian airspace lies in the discrepancies regarding air borders in the area of the island of Vaindloo. Even before the start of the special military operation, Tallinn lobbied for the establishment of a common border with Finland in this area in order to deprive Russia of access to international space, and when it failed to do so, unilaterally shifted its air borders further north. Moscow did not recognise the decision of the Estonian leadership.

By Anton Popov