EDB predicts improvement in Belarus' GDP dynamics
Eurasian Development Bank analysts note that, in 2022, the country’s GDP decreased by 4.7 percent
According to the EDB conclusions, the domestic demand remained restrained last year, since the volume of retail trade and investments in fixed assets decreased in December.
“In the coming months, the rate of GDP reduction in Belarus may remain close to the December value and will begin to slow down in the spring. In turn, by summer, GDP may move to growth in the absence of new shocks,” experts added.
In its recent review, the EDB drew attention to another trend: Belarus’ National Bank made a decision to reduce the refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points to 11.5 percent from January 23rd, 2023. “This move is explained by the slowdown in inflation and inflation expectations,” analysts explained, adding that the reduction in the refinancing rate is likely to have no impact on the interest rates of the credit and deposit market, since they fell sharply in the H2 2022 in the conditions of a liquidity surplus of banks. The EDB analysts believe the National Bank may reduce the refinancing rate to 10 percent this year, provided inflation slows down.