EDB: in 2024, Belarus’ economy to reach highest growth rate in 12 years

The Belarusian economy will reach its highest growth rate for the last 12 years – 4.3 percent – in 2024, Marina Sobolevskaya, the Head of the Centre for Country Analysis of the Analytical Work Directorate at the Eurasian Development Bank, noted during the presentation of the EDB macroeconomic outlook

“Expansion of domestic demand amid rising wages and increased exports to Russia have become the main drivers of the economy in 2024. Positive dynamics is observed in most key sectors of the economy, including the information and communications sector,” Ms. Sobolevskaya explained.

According to her, the high growth rates of the economy will continue in 2025.

“We forecast GDP growth of 2.6 percent. Government measures to stimulate investment, wage increases and the availability of credit will contribute to economic growth. High demand from Russia will maintain the positive dynamics of export supplies, which will support industrial production,” the expert added.

Ms. Sobolevskaya noted that inflation could moderately accelerate to 6.6 percent in 2025 after 5.9 percent in 2024.

“Expansion of domestic demand amid rising wages and higher prices in Russia – Belarus’ main trading partner – will be the main drivers of price dynamics. Against this background, we expect the refinancing rate to remain at 9.5 percent over the entire forecast horizon. The exchange rate is expected to be around Br3.4 per US Dollar on average in 2025. Increasing demand for imports will create conditions for moderate weakening of the exchange rate of the national currency. At the same time, maintaining the net supply of foreign exchange in the domestic currency market will support the Belarusian rouble exchange rate,” the specialist summarised.