Economy with a plus sign

On real growth of citizens’ incomes, industry drivers and investor activity

Despite the pressure and other external challenges, the economic model continues to prove its effectiveness and viability. For two years in a row — in 2023 and 2024 — Belarusian economy showed growth above the world average. At a recent meeting of the Council of Ministers, Belarus’ Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, summing up the results of last year, said that in 2024 the country managed to solve the crucial tasks set by the Head of State and envisaged by the socio-economic development programme. In particular, the well-being of our citizens has increased as real incomes of the population went up by 9.7 percent against a forecast of 3.5. Commendable indicators are the best evidence that the goal for sustainable economic development set by the President is being achieved.

Above target parameters 

Our country’s economy showed good results in January of this year. “The information about how we worked in January is already available,” the Prime Minister informed. “We can say that the economy maintains the growth trend. The GDP indicator is 103.7 percent. We see good rates in construction, agriculture, information and communications. The population’s consumer activity remains quite high. Retail turnover has increased significantly while maintaining a moderate level of inflation. Industry has grown by almost three percent, which is a good start, but we need to add to reach the target for the first quarter. Let me remind you: it is a 3.7 percent growth.”
The Head of Belarus’ Government emphasised that for the second year in a row, Belarusian economy has demonstrated growth above target parameters and average global values,

“The growth rate of gross domestic product for 2024 was 104 percent with a target of 103.8. The main drivers were industry, construction, trade and transport activities. The systemic decisions taken to ensure the sustainable operation of industries made it possible to achieve a positive financial result for the economy.

The volume of net profit received amounted to more than Br16bn with an increase of 8.8 percent compared to 2023. The number of loss-making organisations decreased to the minimum values over the past 10 years.” 
Last year, the Government managed to solve the crucial tasks set by the Head of State and envisaged by the socio-economic development programme. The growth of citizens’ well-being was ensured. Real incomes of the population — that is, cleared of the influence of inflation — grew by 9.7 percent against a forecast of 3.5. “During 2024, wages grew steadily,” pointed out Roman Golovchenko. “In December, it reached almost Br2,700, while pensions in real terms increased by 9.7 percent. As in previous years, support was provided to public sector employees and low-paid categories of workers. Specific decisions were made to establish additional payments to teachers, doctors, as well as social workers. More than Br1.7bn was allocated for these purposes last year.”  

Currency market is balanced 

Belarus has maintained macroeconomic stability. “Gold and foreign currency reserves have increased by almost $800m over the year and amounted to almost $9bn as of January 1st. The economy attracted $1.7bn in net foreign direct investment, demonstrating an increase of 3.5 percent compared to 2023. More than 70 percent of the investment volume has been invested in the real sector. The currency market is balanced, the population has acted as a net seller of currency, and public confidence in the national currency is strengthening. Since the beginning of the year, term bank deposits in Belarusian roubles have grown by nearly Br3bn, or 35 percent. Inflation in 2024 was at a record low of 5.2 percent, with a target of no more than 6.”
Last year, Belarus continued to actively invest in infrastructure in the regions. A total of Br6.6bn was allocated for these purposes, including according to individual decisions of the Head of State. “Based on these figures, we can say that the economic situation is stable and manageable. The only indicator for which we did not reach the target is export. Despite the fact that the volume of deliveries grew by $1.7bn, or 3.5 percent, this is lower than the target set. As you remember, 7.6 percent was planned. Market factors undoubtedly had an impact. The results of the work on diversifying export deliveries cannot be called sufficient either, despite the fact that a record volume of deliveries to African countries was achieved with a 3.3-fold increase. As for the regions, they did well. All regions fulfilled the targets for nominal wages, total budget revenues and volumes of import-substituting goods production.

“I would like to especially note the positive results achieved by the leadership of Vitebsk Region. According to the integrated efficiency indicator, the region reached a clear second place, losing only 0.1 percent to the leader of the rating, Minsk,” the Prime Minister said.

  

Qualitative indicators are important

In 2025, it is planned to exercise greater control over the filling of the export programme with contracts. This was announced by Belarus’ Economy Minister Yuri Chebotar before the start of the Council of Ministers’ meeting on the results of the socio-economic development of Belarus in 2024, “Belarus’ GDP grew by four percent in 2024. This is, of course, due to the measures taken during the year by the Head of State and the Government. Yet, we are concerned not only about quantity, but also about quality — what qualitative indicators of the economy grew last year. It is necessary to note the changes for the better in the sphere of investments. Enterprises are updating more equipment, and this contributes to increasing competitiveness. I would like to highlight that for the second year in a row, investments have been growing at a rate twice as high as GDP. This also speaks of the quality of economic development.”
In 2024, there were good indicators for wage growth in relation to expenses and inflation. For two years in a row, Belarus has had some of the lowest inflation rates in the region, as noted by the Minister. The task for the current year is not to exceed five percent.
Yuri Chebotar emphasised that our country pays great attention to production, export and investment programmes, “Another area is control over the balance of the economy: income, inflation, expenses.” There are also reserves for growth. Among them is export. “We set very large ambitious goals to step up exports to distant far arc countries, to the African region. There are tangible results — deliveries to Africa have increased threefold. However, this year we have decided to exercise greater control, together with our colleagues, over the filling of the export programme with contracts. We are working together to form consolidated shipments to distant regions, as this is logistically more efficient. The issue of possible compensation for logistical deliveries to distant far arc countries is being worked out.”
As part of the One Region — One Project initiative, 70 investment projects have been implemented. The work in this direction continues this year.

By Ilya Kryzhevich