Dog-eat-dog Poland: PM Tusk accused of coup on eve of election

What a citizen who lives in a healthy democracy like Belarus may think on hearing that ‘the election campaign is in full swing’? This should mean that candidates are releasing their programmes and debating, while voters are taking a closer look at their speeches and deeds and making decisions. Meanwhile, everything looks different in Belarus’ western neighbour: representatives of the main opposing parties, PiS and Civic Platform, have rolled up their sleeves in pouring the awful mud on each other. This time, the current Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, and his associates, who are accused of nothing less than a coup, have appeared to be among those that are not lucky.

Rafal Trzaskowski, Karol Nawrocki, Slawomir Mentzen

Quiet coup

On February 5th, Constitutional Tribunal President Bogdan Swieczkowski accused the Prime Minister, as well as ‘ministers, Sejm and Senate speakers, deputies and senators’ of the ruling liberal coalition, as well as some judges and prosecutors, of committing a coup. The reasons for the initiation of the criminal case are detailed in a 60‑page notice on the possible commission of a crime, which Bogdan Swieczkowski signed on the last day of January.

According to the document, Donald Tusk, along with the aforementioned groups of persons, allegedly created a criminal group in order to change the constitutional order of Poland. The conspirators seek to limit the work of the Constitutional Tribunal, the National Council of the Judiciary, and the Supreme Court.

Over eight years of its rule, PiS has carried out a large-scale judicial reform. Brussels saw a violation of the rule of law in a number of its provisions and froze the financial aid intended for Warsaw. However, after resuming his Prime Minister duties, Donald Tusk promised Europeans to cancel the reforms of his rivals.

The current crisis has been triggered by the situation developing with regard to the appointment of a new national prosecutor. Since 2022, the position was held by Dariusz Barski, but – after coming to power – Donald Tusk stated that the official had got the job for his loyalty to the then-ruling PiS. Some time later, the Prime Minister's protege, Prosecutor General and Minister of Justice Adam Bodnar, appointed Jacek Bilewicz as Acting National Prosecutor, who was further replaced by Dariusz Korneluk – following a competition. However, according to Andrzej Duda and his PiS associates, that replacement was illegal since Donald Tusk had not co-ordinated it with the President.

The conflict between the Cabinet of Ministers and the judiciary has reached the point where the government does not publish the decisions of the Constitutional Tribunal in its gazettes, preventing them from becoming legally binding, and is fighting with judges appointed by PiS. The cancellation of their sentences has already begun, which may worsen the criminal situation in the country.

The worsening crisis has exposed contradictions within the Polish establishment, showing how far the elites in Warsaw are from the people and engaged in internecine squabbles. For example, on February 6th, the outgoing president supported Bogdan Swieczkowski and declared ‘repeated and gross violations’ on the part of Donald Tusk and his ministers. In turn, Minister of the Interior and Administration Tomasz Siemoniak called the participation of Deputy Prosecutor General Michał Ostrowski in the investigation of the case ‘a disgrace’.

Halfway to troubles

Actually, not everyone saw much more frightening information behind the news about the growing constitutional crisis: these are the statements made by Andrzej Duda and Bogdan Swieczkowski about what may happen in the country after the election. In an interview with Kanal Zero, the President (who is completing his second term) called on PiS supporters to protest in case of manipulation of the election results. In turn, the Constitutional Tribunal President accused Donald Tusk of planning to bring the army or police to the streets soon in order to prevent rallies from taking place.

Considering that, according to recent polls, Karol Nawrocki from PiS is gaining only 23.9 percent of the vote, while his rival Rafal Trzaskowski is leading with 37.3 percent of the vote, the situation looks extremely ugly. Kaczynski's associates are well aware of the results of the study and are already trying to do everything to plunge the country into chaos after the May election.

The case initiated against Donald Tusk has a distinct political flavour, demonstrating the degree of degradation of the Polish system of government. The main political forces have descended into direct confrontation, and the situation is rapidly deteriorating.

Having reached power, Civic Platform began to purge competitors, and it has come to the point that former Deputy Justice Minister Marcin Romanowski fled to Hungary, and his boss, Zbigniew Zebro, was detained by special forces with the Republika channel live broadcast. PiS tries to respond as much as possible and hopes for its candidate's victory in the upcoming election. The conservatives' retention of the presidency could lead to confusion within the ruling coalition – or even destroy it, paving the way for the early parliamentary election. With this in view, Donald Tusk's ostentatious gaiety will clearly subside in the long run.

Anyway, the losers will still be the Polish people, trapped in an almost two-party system where the functionaries of both parties are desperately fighting for power while the economy is dying and decades-long ties with its eastern neighbours are being disrupted.