Bloody business

Why Poland has higher stakes in continuing the conflict in Ukraine

The behaviour of European political elites in the wake of the tragedy now unfolding in Ukraine has completely denounced their pseudo-democratic rhetoric. The veil of abstract idle talk about freedom, human rights and other nonsense, designed to lull the critical thinking of voters and strengthen the ‘pool of neoliberals’ — the ‘fifth column’ in the states included in the sphere of ‘vital interests’ of the collective West, was just burned down.

Looking for donors

Many Ukrainians still believe that they are fighting the evil empire in the East, some do not even spare their lives in opposition to the ‘Russian world’. The thesis that it is necessary to fight to the last Ukrainian, if only to weaken the Russian Federation, which does not fit into the picture of a unipolar world only by the desire to defend its legitimate geopolitical interests is the cross-cutting theme in the Western information agenda. Poland is number one among such European states.

First, Poland claims to have a stronger political role in the European Union and uses the events in Ukraine to divert attention from its own violations of the principles of European law, which has led to the limitation of financial support from centralised EU funds, amounting to billions of euros.

The position on the Ukrainian conflict is a show with a well-rehearsed script: to create the image of an enemy — to present oneself as the vanguard of the defence of Europe — to demand funds and sanctions against the eastern neighbours. Similar goals were pursued by the ‘war on migrants’ on the Polish-Belarusian border last autumn. 
Opposition to ‘aggression from the East’ is a proven argument for indoctrination of potential financial donors both within the European Union and outside it, primarily in the United States. 
Second, it is obvious that one of the expressed electoral goals of the Polish state is to promote the business interests of its citizens. At the same time, there are clear signs of lobbying for the interests of capital, pursuing very ambitious goals, including ousting Western European giants, which play a key role in the Polish economy.
The origins of such motives can be traced in many cases. Let’s remember how our qualified doctors and IT specialists were encouraged to immigrate, rocking the Belarusian society in August 2020. Of course, they wanted more than that — to gain access to assets through the ‘democratic opposition’, tamed and well-funded. However, they underestimated the solidity of the Belarusian state and the president’s popular support.

No safety margin

At the same time, the ambitions of building Greater Poland, including the implementation of a modern modification of Jozef Pilsudski’s Intermarium archival project with the working title of the Three Seas Initiative, should be viewed precisely in this context — as a condition for enrichment, and the latter as a means of strengthening Polish geopolitical influence. It is so-called virtuous circle, pursuing a strategic goal — the creation of a buffer entity between Russia and Europe in order to prevent the incorporation of European technologies with Russian resources and weaken the EU’s dependence on Russian energy resources. 

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Andrzej Duda. What do they have for dessert?

To solve these problems, Poland under the leadership of the United States for many years has been using all available measures to destabilise the political situation in Belarus and Ukraine in order to remove these states from the fiefdoms of Russia’s political influence and involve them in the implementation of its large-scale project.

Who will act as the hub

It is important to emphasise that Belarus occupies a strategically important geopolitical position in the Baltic-Black Sea region in this context — being practically in the centre, it seems to be ‘wedged’ between its Northern and Southern sectors. Therefore, we should proceed from the fact that our western neighbour will continue destructive efforts to unbalance the socio-political and socio-economic situation in Belarus. Moreover, this fully corresponds to the interests of its main ideological brothers — the United States and Great Britain. 
The tactical goal-setting of Poland is obvious in the context of contemporary Ukrainian events. Foremost, it is energy resources.

The task of turning Poland into the largest European hub for servicing liquefied gas supplies from the United States under the pretext of strengthening the energy security of the region is being solved.

The Polish establishment is actively promoting anti-Russian and anti-Belarusian sanctions: it needs to block the import of energy and electricity from the East, as well as devalue the position of an influential group of ‘green’ MEPs who do not support such an energy paradigm.
Another key task is to provide the Polish economy with cheap labour — as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, Poland has millions of able-bodied Ukrainian citizens at its disposal.

The worse for Ukraine, the better for Poland 

There is no doubt that the conflict in Ukraine is viewed by the unprincipled Polish leadership solely through the prism of economic benefits and prospects for expanding geopolitical influence.

The stakes are high, therefore, both the regular army of Ukraine and various national, territorial, volunteer and other semi-criminal battalions are actively pumped up with weapons and uniforms, training of Ukrainian military specialists is organised on the territory of Poland for the successful realisation of this historical opportunity. ‘The worse for Ukraine, the better for Poland’ approach is being fully implemented… 

At the same time, the tasks of systemic formation of a pro-Polish ‘fifth column’ of agents of influence among the Ukrainian refugees are being solved. They are now methodically convinced of the uncontested need to create a (con)federation from sea to sea — a large formation controlled from Warsaw. 

It should be assumed that the Polish political leadership will act under the ‘if I can’t have you, no one can!’ motto in relation to Ukraine, maximising contradictions and inflaming the conflict.
This is largely due to the fact that Ukraine is Poland’s main geopolitical and economic competitor. Poland is interested in weakening and even dismembering Ukraine precisely as its competitor. 

Polish stakes are growing, but the bloody business is not realised in full scale. Sanctions against Russia and Belarus did not have the expected effect and hit businesses and consumers in the European Union like a boomerang.

Fuel prices in March increased by a third. Inflation as a whole reached an unprecedented 11 percent on an annualised basis. The supply of Polish food and industrial goods to the East is almost completely frozen.
The attitude towards refugees in Polish society is rapidly deteriorating. The peculiarities of the behaviour of individual Ukrainians provide ground for strengthening the authority of Polish nationalists, who preach the idea that people from the East have no place on Polish land. And this does not bode well for maintaining the stability of the Polish society.
What will you do next, neighbours? Continue teasing the Russian bear? We do not recommend doing that as we are concerned for your well-being.



By Dmitry Primshits, Deputy Chairman of the National State Television and Radio Company