Forecast for tomorrow

Which will the year 2008 be in economy, we can already forecast. We offered to make this to the Director of the Institute of Economy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Petr Nikitenko
Which will the year 2008 be in economy, we can already forecast.
We offered to make this to the Director of the Institute of Economy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Petr Nikitenko.

Economy of the country will work properly and steadily, — Petr Nikitenko is sure. — Forecast indicators of economic development for 2008 are rather weighed and valid. It is planned that the level of gross domestic product dynamics will stay on the present level — 8–9 percents. Higher priority should be given to the service industry, innovation projects. The growth tendency of prices is objective, we can’t avoid it. The further we go and develop, the more expensive resources are, the higher the salary is. We are in the European zone, our level and culture of consumption grow. However, there will not be a jump in prices.

The future of dollar is problematic. At the same time, you can’t say that the world system will turn back from it. Though dollar becomes an insecure monetary unit, it “tied” the whole world economical system. Bank reserves of many countries are based on dollar, because it’s impossible to refuse from it. One needs time for it. Today the USA dominate on the world economical space, that’s why we can’t speak about the fact, that dollar will soon leave the world money-and-credit system.

— The gross domestic product indicator can explain few to an inhabitant, however, this indicator of oil-extracting Azerbaijan fluctuates within the limit of 30 percents, and in Russia, rich in resources, by forecasts, it can reach 7 percents. The highest plank of the gross domestic product of Belarus for the next year is determined on the level of 11 percents. Will our country be able develop economy effectively, increasing dynamics? 

— We need to say, that in Belarus the gross domestic product structure is built in fact on the ready production. At the production of consumer goods, works, services there is, however, a primary portion: we extract potash fertilizers. Our gross domestic product can be called resource-processing and at the same time intellectual and knowledge-intensive. Such a structure is more progressive. I think, that here we exceed Azerbaijan. Economy, built on intellect, is more stable, than the economy of resource-possessing countries. I consider such a stra­tegy safer for future competition. 

However, we have another serious question. We can maintain the gross domestic product dynamics, but we need to improve distributing relations. In Russia gross domestic product grows at the expense of the natural rent. However, who gets these results? Only now our neighbour begins to improve its situation. At least, in president programs, with which the candidates go to vote, and Dmitry Medvedev among them, the talk is being carried out, that the natural rent shall belong to the nation, and not to separate people, which assign it. Moreover, they place accumulations, received with the help of it, in other states. In Islamic world or in the Northern countries, such as Norway, this is not the case. There the oil rent is used for the need of the people. 

Belarusian gross domestic product structure is more stable from the point of view of development. If we produce intellectually difficult production, it means, that the systems of education and science can continue the formation. As a rule, countries, which live at the expense of resources, from the point of view of professionalism and the level of development by known comparative characteristics yield to the rivals. 

— Belarus is often criticized, because our gross domestic product is calculated not by generally accepted methods, and by our own method.

— This is not exactly the case. Our country develops on the basis of real possibilities, and, in point of fact, Belarus built its economy on the import of resources. This allows maintaining natural conditions of our country for the next generations. The republic develops in compliance with the strategy of sustained development. We preserve primeval Belarus. 

Even in power engineering one needs a weighed approach. I don’t think, that it is worth to transfer all the electric system of the country to the local types of fuel. Vice versa, we need to think about new energy-effective technologies. And to place a stake on such resources, as gas and atom. As for dependence from gas and oil needle, here we have a choice now. 

It is important for us to preserve nature for the future generations. This will allow turning our country to the source of tourism — a leading sphere, which is more and more in demand in the world.

Viktor Rodionov
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